Raleigh, N.C. – Three months ago, Richard Carmona was clearly the most electable of the two Democrats vying to flip Jon Kyl’s Arizona Senate seat, but now there is very little difference between he and Don Bivens, and they both continue to trail either Republican tested against them. They each lag likely Republican nominee Jeff Flake by 11-point (46-35) margins, and Carmona does nary better against longshot challenger Wil Cardon, lagging 37-33, versus Bivens’ 38-32. In November, Carmona trailed Cardon by only two points (35-33) and Flake by four (40-36), while Bivens lagged by respective eight- (35-27) and ten-point margins (42-32).
Carmona’s personal image has slipped in the meantime, from 17% favorable and 11% unfavorable shortly after his announcement to 13-14 now. The good news for him is that he still has time to define himself as voters become more aware of him. The 73% that have no opinion of him is eclipsed only by Bivens’ 81% and Cardon’s 82%. All of these figures are far less known than Flake, of whom only 31% cannot express an opinion, down from 41% in the previous poll. Those who are familiar with Flake see him somewhat positively (36-30), the same margin as before (33-27).
Because of their candidates’ low profiles, more Democrats are undecided in all of these matchups than are Republicans, so the race will tighten up once Democrats have a nominee. Bivens and Carmona are also getting more crossover support than the Republican candidates are; they do no worse than a tie with independents, and they are pulling more Republican votes (8-11%) than vice versa (8-9%). They have to win considerable support from outside their party, since Republicans outnumber Democrats in this electorate by 15 points.
“Democrats could keep control of the Senate if they take this seat, but it’ll be an uphill climb, even with Obama’s coattails,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 743 Arizona voters between February 17th and 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Don Bivens?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 81%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Wil Cardon?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Richard Carmona?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jeff Flake?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q5 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Don Bivens and Republican Wil
Cardon, who would you vote for?
Don Bivens …………………………………………….. 32%
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 31%
Q6 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Don Bivens and Republican Jeff
Flake, who would you vote for?
Don Bivens …………………………………………….. 35%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican
Wil Cardon, who would you vote for?
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 33%
Wil Cardon……………………………………………… 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 30%
Q8 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican
Jeff Flake, who would you vote for?
Richard Carmona…………………………………….. 35%
Jeff Flake ……………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 50%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q12 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 46%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q13 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 15%
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
Other……………………………………………………… 9%
Q14 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
