Raleigh, N.C. – With poor economic numbers in the news, Barack Obama has once again fallen underwater with North Carolina voters. 45% of North Carolinians approve of Obama, compared to 51% who disapprove. This is down from Obama’s 49-47 spread in June. More Republicans disapprove of Obama, 93%, than Democrats approve, 77%. Obama is particularly unpopular with independents, with whom his approval spread is only 36-62, down considerably from 47-46 in June.
Despite Obama’s lackluster approval, he still has the advantage over most of the Republican field, though his margins have narrowed. Obama now ties Mitt Romney 45-45 (45-44 in June), and leads Michele Bachmann 46-43, Herman Cain 46-42 (48-37), Pawlenty 46-41 (47-40), and Palin 50-42 (52-38).
Each Republican achieves greater support from Democrats than Obama does from Republicans and Obama loses independents by double digits; however, Obama holds a small lead over all but Romney thanks to a 46-33 Democratic party identification advantage. Nevertheless, Obama’s lead is tenuous as twice as many Republicans are undecided as Democrats in most matchups.
As is true throughout the country, Obama’s greatest asset is the unpopularity of his opponents. Bachmann is least despised with a 34-42 favorability rating. She is followed by Cain at 24-36, Romney at 32-47, Pawlenty at 19-40, and Palin at 35-57. Though they are unpopular, both Cain and Pawlenty are unknown by 41% of North Carolinians, giving them room to improve their numbers in the future.
“These are Obama’s roughest numbers in North Carolina in a while,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Continued high unemployment may be taking a toll on his popularity. Still he would be in a decent position to win the state again if the voting was today.”
PPP surveyed 651 North Carolina voters from July 7th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 41%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 20%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 33%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 21%
704………………………………………………………… 17%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
