Raleigh, N.C. – Only twice since 1948 (Lyndon Johnson in 1964 and Bill Clinton in 1992) has Montana gone blue in a presidential election, but President Obama lost the state to John McCain by only 2.5%. Depending on who the Republicans nominate in 2012, he may once again make the Treasure State competitive, or he may get defeated somewhat easily. With McCain voters outnumbering Obama supporters by four points, McCain’s running mate would perform similarly against Obama, as would Newt Gingrich, but Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee would have much healthier leads.
Obama trails 2008 vice presidential pick Sarah Palin by a 45-47 margin, and Gingrich by 44-46. But Romney leads 50-39, and Huckabee 51-41. The president actually wins independents by at least five points in each matchup: 43-38 against Romney, 45-40 against Huckabee, 49-32 against Gingrich, and 52-34 against Palin.
But the GOP-heavy electorate means Obama has to hold his base and take significant Republican support, which he is not doing at this point. All four Republicans woo at least slightly more Democrats than the president does Republicans. Against Gingrich and Palin, Obama is almost evenly matched in terms of party unity, but Romney holds Obama to 84% of Democrats while pulling 92% of Republicans, and Huckabee engenders an 85-9 split.
Obama does remarkably well, considering his 41-54 job approval rating, with all but Gingrich more popular than him. At a 46-35 favorability mark, Huckabee is by far the most popular of the four challengers, with Romney next at 38-39, Palin at 44-50, and Gingrich bringing up the rear at 34-47. Both Obama and Huckabee break even with independents, but the others are way under water, Gingrich at 24-57, Palin at 35-61, and Romney at 35-43. Obama and Palin are the most polarizing—94% of Republicans disapprove of Obama’s job performance, while 85% of Democrats dislike Palin.
“Big Sky Country will be tough territory for President Obama in 2012, but considering the results here and elsewhere, he certainly should be rooting for a Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich nomination,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,176 Montana voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 47%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 46%
Unfavorable……….. 35%
Not sure ……………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 44%
Unfavorable……….. 50%
Not sure ……………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 38%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q6 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 51%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President in 2012 were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q11 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
