Raleigh, N.C. – Jon Tester, who was elected in the Democratic wave of 2006 and is among the most vulnerable members of that class up for re-election in two years, has very strong job approval numbers two-thirds of the way through his first Senate term. But in an early look at possible 2012 matchups, he trails his most likely opponent, at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg, as well as another potential Republican nominee, former Governor Marc Racicot.
Tester posts a 50-40 job performance mark, putting him in the top ten among the senators PPP has measured this year. That is particularly impressive, considering that Republicans outnumber Democrats by nine points in this sample, and even independents are more prevalent. Tester accomplishes this by earning the favor of 54% of independents, with only 34% disapproving. To boot, almost three times as many Republicans (17%) like the job he is doing as Democrats (6%) who dislike it.
Despite his favor with voters, the Republican-heavy electorate puts Tester in some trouble if he does face a viable challenger in Rehberg or Racicot. Rehberg, who has a similarly strong 49-37 favorability rating, tops Tester only 48-46. But Racicot, with a 45-26 personal grade, leads the incumbent 49-42. Against Rehberg, Tester accomplishes what Democrats in more favorable electorates would only dream of: a more unified base than the Republican (92-6 versus 88-8) and a double-digit lead (49-39) with independents. Racicot performs better because of a slight party unity advantage (90-4 versus Tester’s 86-7) and a closer gap with unaffiliateds, 40-46.
Tester does do well at this point against two essentially unknown opponents, former lieutenant governor nominee Steve Daines (48-37) and national security wonk Neil Livingstone (46-35). 76% of voters are unaware of Daines, and they break 7-17 against him. 85% have no opinion of Livingstone, and those who do fall 4-11 in disfavor.
“Jon Tester benefited from a blue tide and displeasure with ethically challenged Senator Conrad Burns to beat him by less than a point in 2006, but he still looks viable in this more Republican environment because he holds his base and has strong appeal to independents,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,176 Montana voters from November 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Denny Rehberg?
Favorable ………….. 49%
Unfavorable……….. 37%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve Daines?
Favorable ………….. 7%
Unfavorable……….. 17%
Not sure ……………. 76%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Neil Livingstone?
Favorable ………….. 4%
Unfavorable……….. 11%
Not sure ……………. 85%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Racicot?
Favorable ………….. 45%
Unfavorable……….. 26%
Not sure ……………. 30%
Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Denny
Rehberg, who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 46%
Denny Rehberg……………………………………….. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Steve
Daines, who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 48%
Steve Daines ………………………………………….. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Neil
Livingstone, who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 46%
Neil Livingstone ………………………………………. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 were
Democrat Jon Tester and Republican Marc
Racicot, who would you vote for?
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 42%
Marc Racicot…………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%
Q12 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 29%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 15%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 33%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
