Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has polled the Montana Senate race three times in the last year, and it has been the exact same story each time: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg leads incumbent Democrat Jon Tester by two points (47-45). The candidates’ standings have been unmoved by fluctuations in their approval ratings.
Tester is still better-liked than Rehberg, and both candidates are seen more poorly by voters than when PPP last polled the race in June, but when it comes down to it, this is a Republican-leaning state. Tester’s 46-42 approval-disapproval spread is down from 51-39 in June and 50-40 last November. Likewise, Rehberg’s 41-47 is down, though less so, from 44-45 in June.
Tester gets a net +5 approval mark with independents, and he leads Rehberg by that same margin. Rehberg’s approval with them is a -22, meaning the independent vote is a referendum on their feelings about Tester. Unlike in some states, independents here make a difference; they are over a third of voters, a co-equal plurality with Republicans. The two-party vote is split, with each candidate getting 10% crossover support.
In June, the candidates to replace Rehberg in the U.S. House were so little-known that the matchups were much like a generic ballot anyway, so this time, PPP surveyed voters only on which party’s candidate they would prefer for Congress. The generic Republican leads the Democrat by five points (46-41). The named horse races ranged from GOP leads of four to ten points five months ago. Indepedents prefer the GOP candidate by five points, the reverse of the Tester-Rehberg standing.
“It’s pretty unusual to see a year pass with absolutely no movement in a political race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But both of these candidates are already very well known to the voters and the race hasn’t really gotten going yet, so it’s not terribly surprising.”
PPP surveyed 1,625 Montana voters from November 28th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .46%
Disapprove…………. .42%
Not sure …………….. .12%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job
performance?
Approve …………….. .41%
Disapprove…………. .47%
Not sure …………….. .11%
Q3 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Denny Rehberg and Democrat Jon
Tester, who would you vote for?
Denny Rehberg……………………………………….. 47%
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democrat …………… .41%
Republican…………. .46%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q5 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 27%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 94%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
