Raleigh, N.C. – Though the national political climate has improved for Democrats since last November, freshman senator Jon Tester remains locked in a tight race with at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg.
Rehberg, Tester’s probable opponent, leads with 47% of the vote to Tester’s 45%. This margin is unchanged from November when Rehberg lead 48-46. Both candidates have locked in most of their base vote, with Tester leading 86-10 among Democrats and Rehberg leading 86-8 among Republicans. While Tester leads 51-36 among independents, the Republicans’ party identification advantage over Democrats in Montana, 39-31, gives Rehberg the slim lead.
Tester remains competitive in Republican Montana through his solid approval ratings. 51% of voters approve to 39% who disapprove. Approval of Rehberg, on the other hand, is only tepid, with 44% approving and 45% disapproving. Both Tester and Rehberg are well-known throughout the state, with only 10% and 11%, respectively, not familiar enough with the candidates to voice an opinion. This could explain why so little has changed in the race over half a year.
Montana’s other senator, Max Baucus, does not have Tester’s popularity. Only 41% of voters approve, compared to 50% who disapprove. Unlike Tester, Baucus faces poor ratings with independents, of whom only 37% approve, to 52% who disapprove. With Tester in such a tight race with a stronger rating, Baucus has much to worry about for 2014, and is unlikely to coast into another 46-point victory, as he did in 2008.
“Jon Tester’s the most popular Senator we’ve ever polled on who’s still trailing for re-election,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question is whether Montana voters will let their affection for him outweigh their unhappiness with national Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 819 Montana voters from June 16th to 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max
Baucus’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
Tester’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job
performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q4 If the candidates for US Senate next year were
Republican Denny Rehberg and Democrat Jon
Tester, who would you vote for?
Denny Rehberg……………………………………….. 47%
Jon Tester ………………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 30%
Q8 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 93%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
