Raleigh, N.C. – Backlash over Kentucky’s Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jack Conway’s recent TV ad calling his Republican opponent Rand Paul’s deity the “Aqua Buddha” may have sunk Conway’s campaign for good.  56% of voters think it was inappropriate, including 72% of Republicans and 68% of independents.  Even 41% of Democrats think the ad in bad taste; only 24% approve.  Coincidentally or not, Conway was down only 42-49 in PPP’s previous survey last month, but he now trails by a likely insurmountable 40-53 with only a week to go.

Possibly because of this ad, since September 12^th, Conway’s previously even favorable-unfavorable ratio has fallen to 39-52.  While his own party, which makes up a bare majority of voters, has moved slightly in his favor, 79% of Republicans and 63% of independents now dislike him.  Last month, he had a positive 35-29 margin with the latter, and only 55% of Republicans were unfavorable toward him.  Paul, meanwhile, has improved a little in voters’ eyes, particularly among independents, who were only 43-38 in his favor previously but 59-31 now.

This huge movement by independents away from Conway and toward Paul personally has made the difference.  They now support Paul by a 66-27 margin, an improvement of 32 points from his 47-40 edge in September.  Though unaffiliateds are only 10% of voters, this shift accounts for more than half of Paul’s improvement in the horse race.  The rest comes from just a slight improvement for Paul among Republicans and an insignificant decline by Paul with his own party.

“Down by single digits until now, Jack Conway threw a Hail Mary with the ‘Aqua Buddha’ TV spot, and Rand Paul looks set to intercept it and return it for a touchdown next week,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 900 likely Kentucky voters from October 21^st to 24^th.  The margin of error is +/-3.3%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 40%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

Q6 Would you like to see Mitch McConnell
continue in his role as Republican leader in the
next Congress?
Yes………………………………………………………… 45%
No …………………………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
Bunning’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q9 Have you seen the ‘Aqua Buddha’ ad?
Yes………………………………………………………… 62%
No …………………………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q10 Do you think the ‘Aqua Buddha’ ad was
appropriate or inappropriate?
Appropriate …………………………………………….. 15%
Inappropriate…………………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q11 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 10%
No …………………………………………………………. 90%

Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 8%

Q13 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 41%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%

Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 50%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%

Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 8%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%