Raleigh,
N.C.- Speaking to his increased national stature over the first half
of 2013, the leading Republican for President in Michigan is Rand Paul. 18% of
primary voters in the state say he would be their first choice for 2016,
followed by Jeb Bush at 16%, Chris Christie at 15%, Paul Ryan at 12%, Marco
Rubio at 11%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Rick Santorum at 6%, Bobby Jindal at 4%, and
Susana Martinez with less than 1%.
Paul leads based on his strength with two key groups. Among voters who
identify themselves as ‘very conservative,’ he’s at 31% with none of the other
GOP hopefuls higher than 15%. And with voters under 45 he’s at 28%, giving him
at least a 13 point lead over the rest of the field. That appeal to younger
voters suggests he may be able to replicate the strong base of support his
father had with them in last year’s race.
If Hillary Clinton’s the Democratic candidate for President at least for now
it looks like the state will remain firmly in the blue column. The only
Republican who even comes within single digits of her is Christie, who still
trails 44-38. The other 3 trail by margins closer to Barack Obama’s 16 point
margin of victory in 2008 than his 9 point victory from last fall- Clinton is
up 14 on Bush at 51/37, 17 on Rubio at 53/36, and 20 on Paul at 55/35.
“There’s been a lot of talk about Hillary Clinton’s popularity flagging in
the last few weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But
she still looks like at least as strong a candidate as Barack Obama was last
year, if not stronger.”
Michigan is like most states in overwhelmingly supporting expanded
background checks for gun purchases. 71% favor them to 21% who are opposed and
the support cuts across party lines- Democrats favor them 87/7, independents do
64/25, and Republicans do 58/35.
PPP surveyed 697 Michigan
voters from May 30th to June 2nd, including an oversample
of 334 Republican primary voters. The margin of error was +/- 3.7% for the
overall survey and +/-5.4% for the Republican portion. This poll was not
authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys
are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Would you support or oppose requiring
background checks for all gun sales, including
gun shows and the Internet?
Support ………………………………………………….. 71%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 51%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 44%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 55%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 If the candidates for President in 2016 were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 53%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q6 If you had one shot or one opportunity to seize
everything you ever wanted in one moment,
would you capture it or just let it slip?
Would capture it………………………………………. 60%
Would let it slip………………………………………… 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q7 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat LOLGOP and Republican Justin
Amash, who would you vote for?
LOLGOP………………………………………………… 23%
Justin Amash ………………………………………….. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%
Q8 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez,
Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 16%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 15%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 7%
Bobby Jindal …………………………………………… 4%
Susana Martinez……………………………………… 0%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 18%
Marco Rubio …………………………………………… 11%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 12%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 29%
Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
