Raleigh, N.C. – If the election were held today, Robert Byrd’s U.S. Senate seat from West Virginia would be held by a Republican and someone other than Byrd for the first time in 52 years. Though Governor Joe Manchin is still very popular, with a stellar 59-32 approval rating, second among those PPP has measured this year to Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal, he is trailing Republican opponent John Raese, 43-46, among likely voters.
West Virginia is still a Democratic state by registration, Democrats representing 51% of the projected electorate to Republicans’ 37%, but they are conservative Democrats who increasingly vote Republican in federal elections. Like Kentucky and a lot of Appalachia and the South with histories of Democratic governors, Mountain State voters still often separate their votes for state officials from those for federal politicians. This traditional vote division is exacerbated by a 10-point pro-Republican enthusiasm gap. John McCain won the state by 13 points in 2008, but West Virginians who plan to vote this year report casting ballots for McCain by 23 points over President Obama—a 10-point enthusiasm gap compared to the electorate two years ago. If the same internals were still true and this race had been run in 2008, Manchin would be ahead roughly 50-44.
Because of the conservatism of the Democrats—34% of whom think the party is too liberal—Raese gets 23% of them, to Manchin’s 14% of the GOP, and Raese wins independents by a 56-30 margin.
If Manchin’s popularity as chief executive cannot help him get elected to higher office, there is no doubt the potential that Manchin will vote for Obama’s agenda is weighing on the minds of West Virginia voters. Obama has a 30-64 approval rating in the state. Luckily for Manchin, he can hang his candidacy on Byrd’s memory. Voters approve of the work Byrd did, 68-23, and want his legacy carried on by his replacement, 52-33.
“There are a lot of voters in West Virginia who like Joe Manchin but don’t like the national Democratic party and right now those feelings about Barack Obama and national Democrats are driving their vote intent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,397 likely West Virginia voters from September 18th to 19th. The margin of error is +/-2.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 30%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 27%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 63%
No opinion………………………………………………. 11%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Joe
Manchin’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 59%
Disapprove………….. 32%
Not sure ……………… 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of John Raese?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q5 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Joe Manchin and Republican John Raese. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Joe Manchin …………………………………………… 43%
John Raese…………………………………………….. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of the work
Robert Byrd did during his time in the US
Senate?
Approve …………………………………………………. 68%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Would you like to see the next Senator from
West Virginia to carry on Robert Byrd’s legacy?
Yes………………………………………………………… 52%
No …………………………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Would you rather Democrats or Republicans
controlled the next Congress?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 37%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 Do you think the national Democratic Party is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 57%
Too conservative……………………………………… 8%
About right ……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Do you think the national Republican Party is
too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 23%
Too conservative……………………………………… 32%
About right ……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 58%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 35%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%
Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 12%
Q15 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 95%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
