Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Kansas poll finds the races for both the Senate and Governor tightening, as Republican voters start to unify more around their party’s candidates.
In the Senate race Greg Orman leads Pat Roberts 44-41, with Libertarian Randall Batson at 5%. In a head to head match up without Batson, Orman has a 46/43 advantage. A month ago he led Roberts 46/36- Orman has held onto his support since then, but the incumbent is on the rise. Roberts’ gains have come pretty much exclusively with Republicans- he’s gone from leading by 26 points with them at 57/31 in September to now a 37 point advantage at 62/25. Roberts remains unpopular- only 37% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 47% who disapprove. But Orman’s negatives are rising as the campaign progresses too- his net favorability of +4 at 42/38 is down 16 points from last month when it was +20 at 39/19.
There’s still one big data point in Kansas pointing to the possibility of Roberts ultimately coming back to win this race. By a 52/35 margin, voters in the state would rather Republicans had control of the Senate than Democrats. And among those who are undecided there’s a 48/25 preference for a GOP controlled Senate.
The Governor’s race is getting close as well. Sam Brownback and Paul Davis are each at 42% to 6% for Libertarian Keen Umbehr. Brownback continues to be very unpopular, with only 38% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapprove. But he’s succeeded in driving Davis’ negatives up over the last month- in September Davis had a +12 net favorability rating at 38/26 but now he’s break even at 39%. That’s helping to drive some Republicans back into the Brownback camp- he leads 64/24 among voters in his own party, compared to 60/25 a month ago.
“Republicans aren’t that enthusiastic about Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts but they’re starting to come around some,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If that trend continues they may be able to survive their unexpectedly difficult reelection bids.”
PPP surveyed 1,081 likely voters from October 9th to 12th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.0%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sam Brownback’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Davis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q4 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Sam Brownback, Democrat Paul Davis, and
Libertarian Keen Umbehr. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 42%
Paul Davis………………………………………………. 42%
Keen Umbehr………………………………………….. 6%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Combined horse race, with Umbehr supporters
asked if they lean Brownback or Davis
Sam Brownback………………………………………. 44%
Paul Davis………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Roberts’ job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Greg Orman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q8 The candidates for U.S. Senate are Republican
Pat Roberts, independent Greg Orman, and
Libertarian Randall Batson. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 41%
Greg Orman……………………………………………. 44%
Randall Batson ……………………………………….. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q9 Combined horse race, with Batson supporters
asked if they lean Roberts or Orman
Pat Roberts…………………………………………….. 43%
Greg Orman……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q10 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Republican Kris Kobach and Democrat Jean
Schodorf. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Kris Kobach ……………………………………………. 47%
Jean Schodorf…………………………………………. 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q11 The candidates for Attorney General are
Republican Derek Schmidt and Democrat A.J.
Kotich. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Derek Schmidt ………………………………………… 53%
A.J. Kotich………………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q12 The candidates for state Treasurer are
Republican Ron Estes and Democrat Carmen
Alldritt. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Ron Estes ………………………………………………. 50%
Carmen Alldritt ………………………………………… 30%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 The candidates for Insurance Commissioner
are Republican Ken Selzer and Democrat
Dennis Anderson. If the election was today,
who would you vote for?
Ken Selzer ……………………………………………… 48%
Dennis Anderson …………………………………….. 32%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q14 In general, would you prefer that Democrats or
Republicans had control of the U.S. Senate?
Democrats ……………………………………………… 35%
Republicans ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jerry
Moran’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 40%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q16 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
allowed in Kansas, or not?
Think it should be…………………………………….. 44%
Think it should not be……………………………….. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q17 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ……………………………………………………..41%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry …………………………………30%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship …………………………………25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q18 Do you think same-sex marriage becoming
legal in Kansas will have a positive or negative
impact on your life, or will it not make a
difference?
Positive impact………………………………………… 12%
Negative impact ………………………………………. 29%
Don’t think it’ll make a difference ……………….. 58%
Q19 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 37%
Jeb Bush………………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q20 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 38%
Chris Christie ………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q21 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q22 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 41%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q23 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton………………………………………….. 40%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q24 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Dole?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q25 Would you support or oppose raising the
minimum wage to $10 an hour?
Support ………………………………………………….. 54%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q26 Is your favorite Major League Baseball team
the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago
Cubs, Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals,
New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, St.
Louis Cardinals, or some other team?
Braves …………………………………………………… 2%
Red Sox…………………………………………………. 3%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 2%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 2%
Royals……………………………………………………. 69%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 2%
Athletics …………………………………………………. 0%
Cardinals………………………………………………… 4%
Someone else / No favorite……………………….. 16%
Q27 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 54%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 8%
Q28 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q29 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q30 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 28%
Republican……………………………………………… 52%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 20%
Q31 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q32 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 65
or older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 13%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
Q33 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%
