Raleigh, N.C. – Illinois Governor Pat Quinn’s approval rating was 25% before he narrowly edged Dan Hynes to win nomination for a full term in February, and two months later his approval rating is still that same 25%. Because of that Republican nominee Bill Brady is the early general election favorite.
Brady leads Quinn 43-33. He has 80% of Republicans behind him, while only 53% of Democrats are planning to vote for Quinn. Part of that is because there are many more undecided Democrats (28%) than Republicans (13%). But Brady also has 19% of Democrats planning to vote for him while only 7% of Republicans support Quinn.
Additionally Brady has a 39-31 advantage with independents. Brady is mostly unknown to voters in the state at this point, with 55% saying they have no opinion of him. Among those who do have one, 25% view him favorably and 20% see him unfavorably.
There’s virtually nothing positive that can be derived from Quinn’s poll numbers. Democrats only approve of him by the smallest of margins, 37/36. African Americans disapprove of him by a 24/37 spread, although they still plan to vote for him 51-17. Only 23% of independents and 10% of Republicans think he’s doing a good job.
“It’s very unusual for someone with Pat Quinn’s approval numbers to get reelected,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Maybe voters won’t like what they see once they become more familiar with Bill Brady but for now Republicans are strongly favored to win this race.”
PPP released numbers showing Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias yesterday, and will have new ones looking at a variety of Illinois issues tomorrow.
PPP surveyed 591 Illinois voters from April 1st to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Pat
Quinn’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 25%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Brady? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 25%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 55%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Bill Brady and Democrat Pat Quinn. If the
election was today, who would you vote for? If
Bill Brady, press 1. If Pat Quinn, press 2. If
you’re undecided, press 3.
Brady …………………………………………………….. 43%
Quinn …………………………………………………….. 33%
Undecided………………………………………………. 24%
Q4 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 39%
Obama…………………………………………………… 54%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q5 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 36%
Q6 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If you are a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 30%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 28%
Q8 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 8%
White …………………………………………………….. 72%
African American …………………………………….. 15%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
