Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new Arkansas poll finds the Senate race continues to be extremely close, with Mark Pryor leading Tom Cotton 43/42. That is basically unchanged from our last poll of the state in December, which found the candidates knotted at 44%. The early flurry of negative ads in the contest has left both candidates unpopular, with Pryor sporting a 38/46 approval rating and Cotton at a 37/42 favorability. To some extent this is shaping up for voters as a ‘lesser of two evils’ choice.

One thing hanging over this contest is Barack Obama’s unpopularity in the state. Only 33% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 61% who disapprove, and among voters who are undecided in the Senate race Obama’s numbers are even worse at a 13/74 spread. Voters disliking Obama isn’t a total dealbreaker for Pryor- right now he’s winning 16% of those folks and another 19% are undecided- but he’ll definitely have to pick up a lot of those folks to win this fall.

In contrast to the Senate race, voters like both of their major choices for Governor. Asa Hutchinson has a 40/33 favorability rating, and Mike Ross registers at 37/29. Hutchinson has opened up a 46/38 lead in our poll, although most recent surveys show the race much closer. Ross would have a 43/33 advantage over Hutchinson’s primary challenger, Curtis Coleman. But it doesn’t look like Hutchinson has a ton to worry about in the primary- he leads Coleman 62/23.

Tim Griffin appears to be in pretty good shape for both the primary and general election in his quest to move from the House to Lieutenant Governor. In the primary Griffin’s at 39% to 19% for Andy Mayberry and 8% for Debra Hobbs. With 34% of voters still undecided that puts Griffin in a pretty good position to reach the 50% mark in the primary. Griffin starts out with a 39/30 lead over John Burkhalter for the general election.

“Arkansas generally looks to be leaning Republican again this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the US Senate race is remaining competitive as Cotton’s negatives have spiked.”

PPP surveyed 840 registered voters, including 342 Republican primary voters, from April 25th to 27th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.4% and for the Republicans it’s +/-5.3%. 80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark
Pyror’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Cotton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q4 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Mark Pryor and Republican Tom
Cotton, who would you vote for?
Mark Pryor ……………………………………………… 43%
Tom Cotton …………………………………………….. 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mike Beebe’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 62%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Curtis Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Asa Hutchinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Ross?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%

Q9 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Curtis Coleman and Democrat
Mike Ross, who would you vote for?
Curtis Coleman ……………………………………….. 33%
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%

Q10 If the candidates for Governor this fall were
Republican Asa Hutchinson and Democrat
Mike Ross, who would you vote for?
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 46%
Mike Ross………………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q11 If the candidates for Lieutenant Governor this
fall were Republican Tim Griffin and Democrat
John Burkhalter, who would you vote for?
Tim Griffin ………………………………………………. 39%
John Burkhalter……………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%

Q12 The candidates for State Land Commissioner
are Republican John Thurston, Democrat Mark
Robertson, and Libertarian Elvis Presley. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
John Thurston…………………………………………. 28%
Mark Robertson ………………………………………. 27%
Elvis Presley …………………………………………… 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%

Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Boozman’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 38%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%

Q14 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 50%
Someone else / Don’t remember ……………….. 12%

Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 23%

Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 41%
Republican……………………………………………… 27%
Independent / Other…………………………………. 32%

Q18 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 79%
African-American …………………………………….. 14%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%

Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 11%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 19%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%

Q20 Mode
Phone ……………………………………………………. 80%
Internet ………………………………………………….. 20%

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Curtis Coleman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 66%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Asa Hutchinson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q3 The Republican candidates for Governor are
Curtis Coleman and Asa Hutchinson. If the
primary was today, who would you vote for?
Curtis Coleman ……………………………………….. 23%
Asa Hutchinson……………………………………….. 62%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

Q4 The Republican candidates for Lieutenant
Governor are Tim Griffin, Debra Hobbs, and
Andy Mayberry. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for?
Tim Griffin ………………………………………………. 39%
Debra Hobbs…………………………………………… 8%
Andy Mayberry………………………………………… 19%
Undecided………………………………………………. 34%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 45%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 49%
Man……………………………………………………….. 51%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 33%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 31%