Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 48,
representing a small shift in Obama’s direction from a week and a half ago when
Romney led 49-47. This now makes 27 out of 28 polls of the state PPP has
conducted this cycle where the candidates have been within two points of each
other.
Obama has built up a lead over the first week of the early voting period in
the state. Among those who say they’ve already voted he’s at 57% to 42% for
Romney. Romney achieves the overall tie because of a 50/45 advantage among
those yet to vote.
Obama’s performance in the debate this week may be helping to pull him
closer in the state. 50% of voters think he was the winner on Monday night to
only 35% who think Romney was victorious, including a 51/21 spread among
independents. He and Romney are now effectively tied among independent voters
at 46/45, where Romney had a 54/40 advantage with them on our last poll.
A key reason Obama remains competitive in North Carolina is that the
Democratic base is extremely fired up. That’s been reflected in the early voter
turnout to date, and we also find that 77% of Democrats say they’re ‘very excited’
to vote in the election this fall compared to 65% of Republicans. Among African
Americans 83% say they’re ‘very excited’ to cast their ballots.
“North Carolina continues to look like a sheer toss up,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “We’ve found the entire cycle that it could
go either way and that continues to be the case with less than two weeks to go,
especially since Obama’s building up a lead in early voting.”
Pat McCrory’s expanded his lead in the Governor’s race to 13 points. He’s at
50% to 37% for Walter Dalton and 5% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. McCrory’s
favorability spread has improved to 53/32. He’s up by 23 points with
independents, 51/28, and he’s winning over 22% of Democrats compared to
Dalton’s 6% of Republicans. Dalton does have a 49/44 lead among those who have
already voted.
PPP surveyed 880
likely voters from October 23rd to 25th. The margin of error for the
survey is +/-3.3%. This poll was not paid for
or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are
conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 2%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q3 The candidates for President are Democrat
Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 4%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 The candidates for Governor are Democrat
Walter Dalton, Republican Pat McCrory, and
Libertarian Barbara Howe. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 37%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 50%
Barbara Howe…………………………………………. 5%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Have you already voted, either at an early
voting site or with an absentee ballot?
Yes………………………………………………………… 30%
No …………………………………………………………. 70%
Q8 The candidates for Secretary of State are
Democrat Elaine Marshall and Republican Ed
Goodwin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Elaine Marshall ……………………………………….. 43%
Ed Goodwin ……………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q9 The candidates for Superintendent of Public
Instruction are Democrat June Atkinson and
Republican John Tedesco. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
June Atkinson …………………………………………. 42%
John Tedesco………………………………………….. 40%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q10 The candidates for Labor Commissioner are
Democrat John Brooks and Republican Cherie
Berry. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?
John Brooks……………………………………………. 37%
Cherie Berry……………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q11 The candidates for Insurance Commissioner
are Democrat Wayne Goodwin and Republican
Mike Causey. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Wayne Goodwin ……………………………………… 45%
Mike Causey …………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 The candidates for State Auditor are Democrat
Beth Wood and Republican Debra Goldman. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Beth Wood……………………………………………… 45%
Debra Goldman ………………………………………. 38%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 Who do you think won the final Presidential
debate: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q14 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of the economy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q15 Do you trust Barack Obama or Mitt Romney
more on the issue of foreign policy?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q16 Are you very excited, somewhat excited, or not
at all excited about voting in the 2012
elections?
Very excited ……………………………………………. 68%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 21%
Not at all excited ……………………………………… 10%
Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the
General Assembly is doing?
Approve …………….. .19%
Disapprove…………. .50%
Not sure …………….. .32%
Q18 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Democrats in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q19 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republicans in the North Carolina
Legislature?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q20 If there was an election for the state legislature
today, would you vote Democratic or
Republican?
Democratic……………………………………………… 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 12%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 55%
Man……………………………………………………….. 45%
Q23 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 44%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q24 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 71%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q26 Area Code
252………………………………………………………… 14%
336………………………………………………………… 18%
704………………………………………………………… 22%
828………………………………………………………… 11%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 21%
