Happy October! Who’s going to win as we head into the last five weeks of the campaign? Who knows!

As one of the most prolific private pollsters in the country PPP has access to a richer variety of data at all sorts of different levels than just about anyone else. We did close to 100 polls in September- statewide, Congressional, legislative level, County Commissioner level, you name it- all over the country.

Across all those polls there were pretty equal numbers of places where Kamala Harris was doing better or worse than Joe Biden did in the same places in 2020. There were a few places where she did a lot better- particularly fast growing suburban areas in the south- and there were a few places where she did a lot worse- particularly some parts of New Jersey and New York. But for the most part things are looking pretty similar to last time around.

That means if the polls are exactly right Kamala Harris will win. But if they’re even two points off in a Republican direction- and a poll two points off the outcome is still a very good poll- then Donald Trump would win.

People just need to be ready for the reality that it’s very unlikely we’re going to have a confident idea on the morning of the election who’s going to win. It’s possible with close outcomes and slow vote counting we aren’t going to have a confident idea three days after the morning of the election who’s going to win.

PPP is available to help clients at every level of the ballot across the country navigate this landscape. We do some of the most accurate, most affordable, and especially important at this time on the calendar- fastest- polls you can get anywhere in the country. Please email us at information@publicpolicypolling.com if we can help you with your races in the last five weeks