Raleigh, N.C. – In two months’ time, Ohio’s Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Lee Fisher has seen a two-point lead over Republican opponent Rob Portman evaporate into a seven-point deficit in PPP’s first poll of likely voters in the race. Fisher led 40-38 among registered voters in June, but Portman now leads 45-38.
As in some other states, the Republican candidate is seen more positively by likely voters, a more Republican set, than among all voters, and the Democratic candidate more negatively. In June, Fisher had a 28-27 personal favorability rating, and Portman a 22-25. Those figures have reversed, with Portman at 29-28 and Fisher at 24-32. Both candidates are slightly disliked by independents, liked by more than 40% of their own party, and disliked by more than 40% of the opposite party, but Fisher is hurt by the fact that 21% of Democrats also have an unfavorable opinion of him.
An equal 21% of Democrats are undecided in the horse race, the same as in June. Because of that, he gets only 71% of his party, to Portman’s 83% of Republicans. This discrepancy explains 5 points of Portman’s lead, the rest explained by his 43-30 lead with independents, a lead he has maintained since June and that could grow when the 26% of them still undecided pick a candidate. In June, both candidates got 69% of their party faithful; likely Republican voters, as elsewhere, are much more unified around their candidate than are likely Democrats or all registered Republicans.
“Democrats almost everywhere are suffering not just from independents leaning toward Republicans but from a base problem—fewer of their voters are planning to show up at the polls than even in usual midterm elections, and those who do are not as unified around their nominees as are Republican voters around theirs,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Lee Fisher has to galvanize his base to win this race. If only 40% of the electorate is Democrats, and only 70% of them vote for him, he loses.”
PPP surveyed 475 likely Ohio voters from August 27th to 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or are you not sure?
Support ………………………………………………….. 37%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
George Voinovich’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 22%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Lee Fisher?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Portman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q6 The candidates for US Senate this fall are
Democrat Lee Fisher and Republican Rob
Portman. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Lee Fisher………………………………………………. 38%
Rob Portman…………………………………………… 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 18%
Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 33%
Disapprove………… 36%
Not sure ……………. 31%
Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 48%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 40%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 40%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 20%
Q12 If you are white, 1. If African-American, press
2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%
Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 21%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
