Raleigh,
N.C.- PPP’s first look at the Michigan Senate race since Carl
Levin’s retirement announcement finds Democrat Gary Peters as the early front
runner, leading 8 different potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 5
to 20 points.
The strongest potential Republican candidate at this point is former
Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who announced her candidacy this week. She
trails Peters by 5 points at 41/36. Land is the best known person considering
the race too, although she still has just 50% name recognition.
Mike Rogers does the next best against Peters, trailing 42/32. After him
it’s Justin Amash and Dave Camp who each trail by 12 points at 42/30 and 43/31
respectively, Kimberly Small who’s 16 points back at 42/26, Roger Kahn and Rob
Steele who are each down 18 at 44/26, and Saul Anuzis who has a 20 point
deficit at 44/24.
Peters’ strength in these early match ups has less to do with him than it
does the general Democratic lean of the state in national elections. At this
point only 34% of voters know enough about Peters to have formed an opinion of
him, with those assessments coming in slightly positive at 18/16. The
Republican field is a blur to voters too though- after Land the best known is
Rogers with 35% name recognition, followed by Camp at 31%, Amash at 30%, Anuzis
at 18%, Small and Steele at 17%, and Kahn at 16%.
Republicans aren’t really sure who they would like to be their standard bearer
next year, but there is a clear top tier. 21% say they would like Camp to be
their candidate, compared to 18% for Rogers, 16% for Amash, and 15% for Land.
Anuzis at 7%, Small at 2%, and Steele and Kahn at 1% round out the candidates
that we tested.
“Michigan is a Democratic state so with all the candidates pretty much
unknown Democrats start out with the lead in the Senate race,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But at this point the poll numbers
almost just represent a generic ballot.”
PPP surveyed 697 Michigan voters from May 30th
to June 2nd, including an oversample of 334 Republican primary
voters. The margin of error was +/- 3.7% for the overall survey and +/-5.4% for
the Republican portion. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any
campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Carl
Levin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Debbie Stabenow’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Peters?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Justin Amash?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Saul Anuzis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Camp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 15%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roger Kahn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 50%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Rogers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kimberly Small?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Steele?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q13 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Justin
Amash, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 42%
Justin Amash ………………………………………….. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q14 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Saul
Anuzis, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 44%
Saul Anuzis …………………………………………….. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Dave
Camp, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 43%
Dave Camp…………………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Roger
Kahn, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 44%
Roger Kahn…………………………………………….. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q17 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Terri
Lynn Land, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 41%
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q18 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Mike
Rogers, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 42%
Mike Rogers……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q19 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican
Kimberly Small, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 42%
Kimberly Small………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q20 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Gary Peters and Republican Rob
Steele, who would you vote for?
Gary Peters…………………………………………….. 44%
Rob Steele……………………………………………… 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 29%
Q21 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 43%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 13%
Q23 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q24 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 36%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 35%
Q25 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 81%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 7%
Q26 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45 years old, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If
you are older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 18%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 29%
Republican Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Justin Amash?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 18%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 72%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Saul Anuzis?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dave Camp?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 65%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roger Kahn?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 87%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Terri Lynn Land?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Rogers?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kimberly Small?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 90%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rob Steele?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q9 Given the choices of Justin Amash, Saul
Anuzis, Dave Camp, Roger Kahn, Terri Lynn
Land, Mike Rogers, Kimberly Small, and Rob
Steele, who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate next year?
Justin Amash ………………………………………….. 16%
Saul Anuzis …………………………………………….. 7%
Dave Camp…………………………………………….. 21%
Roger Kahn…………………………………………….. 1%
Terri Lynn Land ……………………………………….. 15%
Mike Rogers……………………………………………. 18%
Kimberly Small………………………………………… 2%
Rob Steele……………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 20%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 25%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 40%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 29%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q12 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 33%
