Raleigh, N.C. – Before Rick Perry’s sudden emergence, there had been several presidential candidates this year who momentarily captured the imagination of the right wing—first Donald Trump in March, then Herman Cain in June, then Michele Bachmann in July. But not even Trump so quickly and decisively turned that into an actual lead in a PPP national poll of Republican primary voters.
Perry gets a full third of the GOP’s support, 13 points ahead of Mitt Romney’s 20% and Bachmann’s 16%. Everyone else has really settled into the background, with Newt Gingrich at 8%, Herman Cain and Ron Paul at 6%, Rick Santorum at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%. Bachmann is down five points from a lead last month; Romney holds his ground, and Perry is up 21 points. If Sarah Palin jumps into the race, it would knock Bachmann to fourth at 10% behind Perry’s 27%, Romney’s 17%, and Palin’s 13%.
Yesterday’s Iowa release showed Perry leading there, and this poll suggests he is well-positioned for when the race goes national after the early states. In a contest among the currently supposed top tier, Perry would beat Romney and Bachmann, 41-29-19. If Perry were to somehow fall out of the race, about half of his support would go to each of the other two, and Romney would prevail over Bachmann, 49-40. But if Perry is in a two-way, he would beat Romney, 52-36, and Bachmann, 56-26. Romney’s more center-right supporters would much prefer Perry to Bachmann, but Perry would also be the second choice for most of Bachmann’s conservative voters, suggesting he could unite the center-right and far right voters that Romney and no other candidate has so far been able to.
“There have been a lot of flavors of the month in the Republican Presidential race and it’s possible that Rick Perry is just another of those,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But his support right now is stronger than Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain or Donald Trump or Mike Huckabee’s ever was which suggests he should have more staying power.”
PPP surveyed 663 usual Republican primary voters nationwide from August 18th to 21st. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 39%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 19%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 54%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 27%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q10 Now how about if Sarah Palin didn’t end up
running for President, but Paul Ryan did, and
the candidates were Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan,
and Rick Santorum. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 15%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 27%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 9%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q11 What if neither Sarah Palin nor Paul Ryan ran
for President, and the candidates were just
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry,
Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum. Who would
you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 16%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 6%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 33%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 5%
Q12 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 19%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 41%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q13 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney,
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q14 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 52%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q15 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 26%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 42%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%
