Raleigh, N.C. – Despite his slippage with general-election voters against President Obama, Rick Perry has maintained his lead over Mitt Romney and company in the race for the right to face the president. In PPP’s newest national primary poll, Perry now has 31% to Romney’s 18%, Ron Paul’s 11%, Newt Gingrich’s 10%, Michele Bachmann’s 9%, Herman Cain’s 8%, and Rick Santorum’s and Jon Huntsman’s 2%. In August, Perry led by an identical 13-point spread, 33-20. At 16% then, Bachmann continues to tumble from contention not long after winning the Ames Straw Poll. Paul is up five points and Gingrich and Cain each two, while Santorum has fallen two points and Huntsman one.
Perry has only upped his lead with the most conservative voters, who make up a third of the electorate. He topped Romney 40-14 in August, and 39-9 now, with Romney in sixth place. Romney has made up a little ground with the others, trailing by 11 with the “somewhat conservative” plurality and leading by 15 with moderates.
If the race were to come down to only Perry and Romney, the Texan would prevail, 49-37. That is down a tad from Perry’s 52-36 lead three weeks ago. Perry leads almost 3:1 with right-wingers, but only by eight points with the center-right, and trails by 19 with centrists.
Yesterday’s release showed that only 20% of all voters agree with Perry that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme,” and still only a third of these voters do. With them, Perry holds a huge 40-15 lead in the multi-candidate field, and 64-26 head-to-head. With the 53% who disagree, Perry leads Romney only 24-23.
“Perry’s momentum has finally stopped,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He was gaining more and more support with every new poll and that is not the case with this one. But he’s in a very good position- the big question now is whether he can hold onto it.”
PPP surveyed 500 usual Republican primary voters nationally from September 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry,
Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who would
you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 31%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q6 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q7 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 38%
No …………………………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Do you believe in global warming or not?
Believe in global warming …………………………. 27%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q9 Do you believe in evolution or not?
Believe in evolution………………………………….. 40%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 48%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q10 Would you support eliminating Social Security
or not?
Would support eliminating Social Security …… 17%
Would not……………………………………………….. 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement? “Social Security is a Ponzi
Scheme.”
Agree …………………………………………………….. 33%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q12 Would you support eliminating Medicare or
not?
Would support eliminating Medicare…………… 12%
Would not……………………………………………….. 78%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q13 Would you support eliminating Medicaid or
not?
Would support eliminating Medicaid …………… 25%
Would not……………………………………………….. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 Do you think that natural disasters are
messages from God or not?
Natural disasters are a message from God …. 27%
They are not……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q15 Do you support or oppose capital punishment?
Support ………………………………………………….. 80%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q16 Do you think executing convicted murderers is
something to cheer about or not?
Executing convicted murderers is something
to cheer about………………………………………….22%
It is not …………………………………………………… 70%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q17 Do you think Barack Obama is a Socialist or
not?
He is a Socialist ………………………………………. 71%
He is not…………………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 33%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 48%
Man……………………………………………………….. 52%
Q20 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 79%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
