Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Perry’s standing in the state he has served as governor for about 12 years has declined along with that in the country at large. His 42% approval rating at home is actually lower than President Obama’s 44% approval in Texas. The president’s standing on that front is up four points since PPP last polled the state in September, with Perry’s down three. As such, Perry only leads the president by one point (48-47), versus a seven-point (51-44) lead four months ago.
The only candidate Obama beats in the Lone Star State is Newt Gingrich, who trails by two points (45-47). Obama trails his most likely opponent, Mitt Romney, by seven points (42-49); Rick Santorum by the exact same margin; and one of the state’s congressmen, Ron Paul, by six (40-46).
But while Texas would probably be one of only a handful of states Paul would win as the GOP nominee against Obama, if he were a third-party candidate, he would make his adopted state very competitive between Obama and Romney. Paul would pull 17% as an independent, with Romney edging Obama only 40-38. That is because Paul does not hurt Obama at all with Democrats; he wins 81% of their vote either way, with Paul at 6%. But Paul pulls Romney from 84% to 73% of Republicans, and he actually wins independents with 32%, pulling about equally from Obama (down from 43% to 30%) and Romney (41% to 27%).
By contrast, a more likely third-party candidate, Libertarian Gary Johnson from neighboring New Mexico, would actually help Romney a bit in this state. Romney would lead Obama by eight points (47-39), with Johnson at 7%, the same proportion he gets in PPP’s latest national poll.
“Rick Perry’s campaign clearly hurt his standing in Texas,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He’d have trouble even beating Obama there at this point.”
PPP surveyed 700 Texas voters from January 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.7%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q10 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who
would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 47%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 7%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt
Romney, and Ron Paul running as an
independent, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 40%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 17%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q13 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q14 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 51%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 9%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 26%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 24%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q17 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 34%
Republican……………………………………………… 40%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q18 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 18%
White …………………………………………………….. 65%
African-American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
