Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s June poll of the Texas gubernatorial race showing ten-year incumbent Rick Perry tied with Democratic challenger Bill White made waves. But in PPP’s first poll of likely voters in the race, Perry has moved into a 48-42 lead. There are danger signs for Perry, though, in this anti-incumbent environment: while Texas has no legal term limit, a near majority, 49%, of the state’s voters think a governor should be limited to two terms, with only 26% thinking that there should either be no term limit or that the limit should be more than two terms. Even 41% of Republicans and 61% of independents think there should be a two-term limit. Perry is running for his third full term, now already in his third partial after taking over for George W. Bush.
A bare majority, 50%, now disapprove of Perry’s job performance, with only 39% approving. White, meanwhile, is viewed positively by a 44-29 margin.
While White has increased his lead with independents to 53-34, and still pulls 82% of his party to Perry’s 77% of Republicans, he lags overall because 47% of those who plan to vote are GOP faithful, and only 30% Democrats and 23% independents.
Unlike in many other states, this year’s voters report supporting John McCain less than his actual margin of victory in 2008. With no Senate race nationalizing the state’s politics, and with the unpopular incumbent governor being a Republican, Democrats are, if anything, more motivated to turn out this year than two years ago. In most states with toss-up races, Republicans are taking advantage of a significant enthusiasm gap.
“Texans don’t love Rick Perry, and as the challenger, Bill White is the rare Democrat who is running much better among independents and holding more of his party base than his Republican opponent,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it will still be hard for White to overcome his huge party registration disadvantage in this deeply red state.”
PPP surveyed 538 likely Texas voters from September 2nd to 6th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 39%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill White?
Favorable ………….. 44%
Unfavorable……….. 29%
Not sure ……………. 27%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Rick Perry and Democrat Bill White. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Rick Perry …………… 48%
Bill White…………….. 42%
Undecided…………… 10%
Q4 The candidates for Lieutenant Governor are
Republican David Dewhurst and Democrat
Linda Chavez-Thompson. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
David Dewhurst ……54%
Linda Chavez-
Thompson…………… 34%
Undecided…………… 11%
Q5 What is your position on term limits for Texas
Governors?
No term limit………… 15%
One term…………….. 17%
Two terms …………… 49%
More than two
terms………………….. 11%
Not sure ……………… 7%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 52%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q7 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 47%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 47%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 23%
Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 16%
White …………………………………………………….. 70%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
