Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Perry’s in a solid position for reelection as Governor of Texas, leading Bill White 53-44 on PPP’s final poll of the race.

For White it may be a classic case of the right candidate running in the wrong cycle.  He has strong favorability numbers at a 46/39 spread while Perry can only break even on his approval rating at 45% giving him good marks and 45% bad ones.  White leads with independent voters 50-44.  That makes him one of very few Democratic candidates anywhere in the country leading with that group this year and it’s all the more impressive given that Barack Obama’s approval rating with that same ground of independents is a 33/55 spread.

Ultimately though to win as a Democrat in Texas you’re going to have to win a fair amount of crossover support from Republican voters and in the end White just wasn’t able to do it.  Just 11% of GOP voters are planning to support him, a number equivalent to the 11% of Democrats who plan to vote for Perry.  In this highly polarized political climate Republicans just aren’t particularly inclined to vote for any Democrat, even an unusually appealing one like White.

Even if he isn’t ultimately successful White’s candidacy could have some positive benefits for other Democrats in the state locked in close races.  Texas is seeing virtually no enthusiasm gap, especially when compared to the huge drops in Democratic turnout PPP is seeing as likely to happen in other states.  Having an appealing person at the top of the ticket has the party’s voters there more engaged than in most places.

“Certainly it would have been hard for any Democrat to win in Texas this year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Still you have to give Rick Perry a lot of credit- it’d be hard to find another politician in the country this year who defeated as strong a pair of candidates as Kay Bailey Hutchison and Bill White.”

PPP surveyed 568 likely Texas voters from October 26^th to 28th.  The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.1%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Rick Perry and Democrat Bill White. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 53%
Bill White………………………………………………… 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 3%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill White?
Favorable ………….. 46%
Unfavorable……….. 39%
Not sure ……………. 15%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 33%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Bailey Hutchison’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Cornyn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 46%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 54%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 41%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%

Q8 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 12%
Moderate………………………………………………… 38%
Conservative…………………………………………… 50%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%

Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 44%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 25%

Q11 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 20%
White …………………………………………………….. 66%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 3%

Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 41%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%

Q13 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 44%
No …………………………………………………………. 56%