Raleigh, N.C. – If there was any question that Rick Perry is the new Republican presidential frontrunner before now, PPP’s latest poll of South Carolina confirms it. A week ago, PPP showed Perry jumping to a narrow lead in first-caucus Iowa. Now, he has a double-digit lead in what will likely be the third-voting state.
Perry tops with 36% to Mitt Romney’s 16%, Michele Bachmann’s 13%, Herman Cain’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s 8%, Ron Paul’s 5%, Rick Santorum’s 4%, and Jon Huntsman’s 2%. This is a sea change from when PPP last polled the race in June, with Perry not included. Romney led with 30% to Cain’s and Gingrich’s 15%, Bachmann’s 13%, and Paul’s 10%. If Sarah Palin joins the fray, it has no impact on Perry’s dominance but a lot on Bachmann’s standing. Palin would place third at 10% behind Perry still at 36%, Romney at 13%, followed by Cain’s 9%, and Bachmann and Gingrich tied at 7%.
Perry would also dominate if the race came down to the top three, with half the vote to Romney’s quarter and Bachmann’s 16%. Romney would narrowly beat Bachmann, 45-40, while Perry would crush either, 59-28 over Romney and 60-23 over Bachmann.
Perry has made a lot of news for statements doubting the science behind evolution and global warming, but he is in the mainstream of GOP thought. Only a quarter of South Carolina Republicans believe in global warming, and 32% in evolution. Romney wins 41-36-12 over Perry and Bachmann with the global warming believers, but Perry wins 59-19-17 over Bachmann and Romney with the deniers. Also, belief in Obama’s citizenship has declined since June, when 42% believed the president was born here and 35% did not. Now, that is more than flipped, 35-44.
“People can make fun of Rick Perry for some of his statements but Republicans agree with most of what he’s saying and it’s fueling a large lead for him in South Carolina,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 750 usual South Carolina Republican primary voters from August 25th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 63%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 47%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Chris Christie?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 44%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of George Pataki?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 10%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rudy Giuliani?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q13 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Buddy Roemer?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 83%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Gary Johnson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 3%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 84%
Q15 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Fred Karger?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 2%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 12%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 86%
Q16 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 10%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 36%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q17 What if Sarah Palin didn’t run for President,
and the candidates were just Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum. Who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 36%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 4%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q18 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 16%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 50%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q19 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney,
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 40%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q20 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 59%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q21 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 20%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q22 How important to you is it that the Republican
Presidential candidate be from the South: very
important, somewhat important, or not that
important?
Very important…………………………………………. 9%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 15%
Not that important ……………………………………. 75%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 1%
Q23 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Tea Party?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q24 Do you believe in global warming or not?
Believe in global warming …………………………. 25%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q25 Do you believe in evolution or not?
Believe in evolution………………………………….. 32%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q26 Do you think Barack Obama was born in the
United States?
Yes………………………………………………………… 35%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q28 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q29 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 1%
Republican……………………………………………… 80%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q30 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
