Raleigh, N.C. – It probably comes as no surprise that Texas’ Republican presidential primary is uncompetitive. Rick Perry has almost half (49%) of his home-state partymates’ support, followed way behind by Mitt Romney’s 10%, Newt Gingrich’s 8%, Ron Paul’s, Michele Bachmann’s, and Herman Cain’s 7%, Rick Santorum’s 3%, Jon Huntsman’s 2%, and Gary Johnson’s less than 1%. That is an improvement from June, when Perry was only a theoretical candidate who had previously turned down a run. Then, he had 31% to Romney’s 15%, Bachmann’s 11%, and the others in single digits. If the contest were already down to Perry and Romney by the time Texas’ voting were held, Perry would annihilate his opponent, 72-18.
Perry has upped his job approval marks with these voters in the interim, up 18 points from a so-so 64-29 to a pretty solid 72-19. Meanwhile, voters see all the others but Gingrich not just less positively than Perry but actually negatively. Romney’s favorability numbers are down 22 points from an already weak 49-34 to a negative 37-44. Bachmann is down 32 points, from 51-27 to 38-46. And Paul is still seen negatively, but even more so, down six points from 37-45 to 35-49. Gingrich sits at 50-36.
A slim plurality of these voters agree with Perry that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme, 46-35, almost flipped from the 33-53 PPP found nationally earlier this month. Though Perry has walked his support for it back, 60% disagree with requiring the HPV vaccine. 64% do not believe in global warming, and 53% do not believe in evolution.
It is mostly a battle of name recognition at this point, just as in the general-election numbers released yesterday, but David Dewhurst has a stranglehold in the early race for the Senate nomination. He pulls 41% to Ted Cruz’s 12%, Elizabeth Ames Jones’ 7%, and Tom Leppert’s 6%, with a huge 34% undecided. 74% of even these active primary voters are unfamiliar with Leppert, and 79% with Cruz, but only 42% cannot express an opinion of Dewhurst.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Texas Republican primary voters from September 15th to 18th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 35%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 72%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ted Cruz?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 79%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of David Dewhurst?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Leppert?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 13%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 74%
Q9 Do you believe in global warming or not?
Believe in global warming …………………………. 20%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q10 Do you believe in evolution or not?
Believe in evolution………………………………….. 32%
Do not ……………………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q11 Do you agree or disagree with the following
statement: “Social Security is a Ponzi
Scheme.”
Agree …………………………………………………….. 46%
Disagree ………………………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q12 Do you support or oppose requiring girls
entering the 6th grade to be vaccinated against
the human papilloma virus, also known as
HPV?
Support ………………………………………………….. 19%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 Given the choices of Ted Cruz, David
Dewhurst, Elizabeth Ames Jones, and Tom
Leppert, who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate next year?
Ted Cruz ………………………………………………… 12%
David Dewhurst ………………………………………. 41%
Elizabeth Ames Jones………………………………. 7%
Tom Leppert……………………………………………. 6%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 34%
Q14 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron
Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 10%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q15 If the Republican Presidential race came down
to just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, who would
you vote for?
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 72%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 41%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 2%
Republican……………………………………………… 82%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q19 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 30%
