Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans should probably not be terribly proud that their top pick for next year’s U.S. Senate nomination is a disgraced football coach. It is the still-popular Jim Tressel, and he is more than twice as well-known as the other three possible contenders, but it is at best a sign that no one is paying attention to the burgeoning race yet, and at worst a sign that there is little enthusiasm for the real candidates.
Tressel is almost certain not to run for office, but he leads with 23% over Josh Mandel’s 17%, Jim Jordan’s 13%, and Kevin Coughlin’s 5%, with 43% undecided. Without Tressel, Mandel tops Jordan and Coughlin, 27-16-8, and beats Coughlin in a two-way, 31-12. Mandel is the establishment’s pick, but with 57% undecided in the latter matchup, anything could happen.
The contest is a function of name recognition so far. Two-thirds have an opinion of Tressel; 46% have a favorable opinion of him and 21% a negative one. By contrast, only 31% know enough about Mandel to express an opinion, but he is very well-liked (24-7). Only 22% are aware of Jordan (14-8) and a mere 15% of Coughlin (6-9).
Rick Perry’s threat to Mitt Romney’s presidential chances is becoming more and more real as he officially enters the race. When PPP polled Ohio GOP primary voters three months ago, Romney led with 23% over Newt Gingrich’s 16%, Herman Cain’s and Ron Paul’s 13%, Michele Bachmann’s 11%, and Tim Pawlenty’s 6%.
Now Perry, polled for the first time here, has jumped into the lead with 21% to Romney’s 20%, Bachmann’s 14%, Cain’s 10%, Gingrich’s and Paul’s 8%, and Jon Huntsman’s 1%. Polled before he dropped out of the race, Pawlenty got only 3% support. If Sarah Palin were to jump into the race, she would knock Bachmann from third but help Perry. Perry would hold at 21% to Romney’s 18%, Palin’s 11%, Bachmann’s 10%, Cain’s 8%, and Gingrich’s and Paul’s 7%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Ohio Republican primary voters from August 11th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 26%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 40%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 50%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 35%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Coughlin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 9%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 85%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 78%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 69%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Tressel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 8%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 7%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 21%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 15%
Q11 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 14%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 8%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 21%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 16%
Q12 If the candidates for US Senate were Kevin
Coughlin, Jim Jordan, Josh Mandel, and Jim
Tressel, who would you vote for?
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 5%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 13%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 17%
Jim Tressel……………………………………………… 23%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 43%
Q13 If the candidates for US Senate were just Kevin
Coughlin, Jim Jordan, and Josh Mandel, who
would you vote for?
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 8%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 16%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 27%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 49%
Q14 If the candidates for US Senate were just Kevin
Coughlin and Josh Mandel, who would you
vote for?
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 12%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 31%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 57%
Q15 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 41%
Q16 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
