Raleigh, N.C. – Having made his bid for the Republican presidential nomination official Saturday, Rick Perry instantly becomes a big threat to Mitt Romney’s dominance in the Western primaries and in the South, where he is already potentially weak. Perry ties Romney in Colorado, where Romney had enjoyed a lead, albeit small, when PPP last polled the state in February. Romney gets 22% to Perry’s 21%, with Michele Bachmann at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Herman Cain at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%. With Sarah Palin in the field, Romney and Perry are deadlocked at 20%, with Bachmann back at 12%, Palin at 11%, and the others in single digits. Six months ago, Romney had 19% over Palin’s and Mike Huckabee’s 16% and Newt Gingrich’s 12%, with four others in single digits.
In North Carolina, Romney has declined from 23% to 16% since last month, and Bachmann from 22% to 17%, with Perry tying her for the lead, up from 14%. Gingrich and Paul are not much further back, at 11% each, with Cain at 9%, Pawlenty at 4%, and Huntsman at 2%. Palin’s presence makes a much bigger difference here than in Colorado. Bachmann falls back to 9%, with Romney, Perry, and Palin all at 17%, Cain at 11%, Gingrich at 10%, and the others in single digits.
As almost everywhere, Romney dominates with moderates in both states, but they make up only 21% of the Colorado electorate and 15% of North Carolina’s. He is starting to show some weakness with the center-right voters who make up 37% of each state’s voters. Perry leads Romney 21-19 in North Carolina, and Romney tops only 24-23 in Colorado. It is, as ever, with the furthest right voters that Romney falls seriously behind. A 42% plurality in North Carolina, they prefer Perry, 19-12, over Romney, with Bachmann at 18%, Cain also at 12%, and Paul at 11%. A significant 35% of voters in Colorado, the very conservative give Perry a dominant 28-18 advantage over Romney, with Bachmann at 17%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual North Carolina Republican primary voters, with a +/- 4.9% margin of error, and 314 usual Colorado Republican primary voters, with a +/- 5.5% margin of error, from August 4th to 7th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Colorado Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 12%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 6%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 20%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 20%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%
Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 15%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 9%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 21%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 22%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Tea Party?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 73%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 32%
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 36%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 9%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 10%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 17%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 2%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 17%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%
Q7 If Sarah Palin didn’t end up running for
President, and the candidates were Michele
Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick
Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you vote
for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 17%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 9%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 11%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 11%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 17%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
