Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s standing has slipped in North Carolina since last month. Now 43% of Tar Heels approve of the president’s job performance, and 53% disapprove, down from 46-50 in August. But Obama’s chances of taking the state again in next fall’s election remain about the same as they were in 2008: fifty-fifty. He leads all but one of his prospective foes because he is still more popular than all but that one.
For the first time since Mike Huckabee bowed out of contention in May, someone other than Mitt Romney gives the president his toughest challenge in this state: Rick Perry, who ties the president at 46%. Mitt Romney trails Obama, 45-44. Last month, a week before Perry officially jumped into the race, Romney trailed, 46-43, but Perry was down, 48-40. This marks the first time in a PPP poll of any state, even Texas, in which Perry has performed better against Obama than Romney, who had until recently shown himself to be more electable than his competitors, and usually by a wide margin.
The reason Perry does slightly better than Romney is that he earns 83% of the Republican vote, versus Romney’s 78%. Romney performs a bit better with independents, leading the president by 27 points, versus Perry’s 23. But independents are only 19% of the electorate, and Obama lost them by 21 points to John McCain, according to exit polls. The president’s biggest worry is that each Perry and Romney take 15-16% of Democrats. He lost only 9% of them in 2008, and they make up 46% of voters. Another worry: far more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats. If those voters fall proportionately to where the decided have, Perry would actually lead 51-48, and Romney 53-47. Obama currently leads Michele Bachmann, 47-45, and Newt Gingrich, 48-43.
“Barack Obama’s numbers in North Carolina are the worst they’ve been in almost a year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The weakness of the Republican candidate field still has the state within reach for him but he definitely needs to get those approval figures turned around.”
PPP surveyed 520 North Carolina voters from September 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 43%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 47%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 11%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 54%
Man……………………………………………………….. 46%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 34%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 21%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 10%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18
252………………………………………………………… 10%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 15%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
