Raleigh, N.C. – The good news for North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue is that she has not been harmed yet by the indictments to her 2008 campaign staff that came down last week. The bad news is she is still underwater with voters and facing a double-digit deficit to likely Republican opponent Pat McCrory. She lags McCrory by ten points (50-40), hardly a change from last month (48-39). Her approval rating stands at 37-48, again, not much different than in late October (38-50).
State Rep. Bill Faison has been making noise for months about possibly challenging Perdue in the primary, but his name identification statewide is only 27%, and those who are familiar with him fall at 5% favorable and 22% unfavorable. He is best-known but least-liked by his own Democrats, so right now, he would fall to Perdue by 32 points (55-23), and if he somehow made it through that hurdle, he would have twice Perdue’s deficit to McCrory (47-26).
It remains a daunting task for proponents of gay rights to defeat the marriage amendment that will be on the primary ballot next May. 58% of likely primary voters say they would vote for the amendment and only 32% against. But the task is entirely about education. The amendment would, among other things, prohibit civil unions and domestic partnerships, and even these primary voters who are overwhelmingly for the amendment’s ballot language and against same-sex marriage itself are in favor of gay couples having civil unions. While they oppose gay marriage by a 30-57 margin, 56% of them want gay couples to still have the option of the same legal rights as married heterosexual couples. That includes 65% of Democrats, who right now are for the amendment by a 47-43 margin. It also includes 62% of independents, who favor the amendment even more (52-35). If opponents can turn those numbers around through information initiatives and voter turnout, the amendment could narrowly fail.
PPP surveyed 865 North Carolina voters, including 688 likely primary voters and 392 likely Democratic primary voters, from December 1st to 4th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-3.3%, +/-3.7% for the entire primary sample, and +/-5.0% for the Democratic primary sample. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bev Perdue………… .40%
Pat McCrory……….. .50%
Undecided………….. .10%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 37%
Disapprove………… 48%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Faison?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 5%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 73%
Q5 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bill Faison and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bill Faison ………….. .26%
Pat McCrory……….. .47%
Undecided………….. .26%
Q6 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were Bill Faison and Bev Perdue, who would
you vote for? (Asked of 392 Democratic
primary voters)
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 23%
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q7 Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State? (Asked of 688 likely primary voters)
Would vote for it………………………………………. 58%
Would vote against it ……………………………….. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .30%
Illegal ………………… .57%
Not sure …………….. .13%
Q9 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should
be allowed to legally
marry…………………..27%
Gay couples should
be allowed to form
civil unions but not
marry…………………..29%
There should be no
legal recognition of
a gay couple’s
relationship ………….40%
Not sure …………….. . 3%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 17%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 24%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 35%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 75%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q16
252………………………………………………………… 11%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 24%
828………………………………………………………… 12%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 18%
