Raleigh, N.C. – Former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is essentially a gubernatorial nominee-in-waiting for a universally presumed rematch with Governor Bev Perdue. In 2008, President Obama won the Tar Heel State for his party for the first time since Jimmy Carter, and Kay Hagan swept Elizabeth Dole from office by nine points. But Perdue defeated McCrory by only three, when Democrats typically dominate state politics and suffer at the federal level. So even as Perdue, Obama, and other Democrats begin to rebound from their disastrous 2010, the governor still trails the relatively popular McCrory about two years from the next inauguration.
McCrory now leads Perdue with 47% to her 40%. That is an improvement on the 49-37 deficit Perdue found herself in when the race was last tested shortly after the 2010 “shellacking.” Perdue’s recovery has come mostly among independents, who gave McCrory a resounding 58-27 lead two months ago.. But unaffiliated voters now only favor him by a 44-34 margin. Independents voted strongly for Hagan and Obama, but while they are moving back toward the Democrats in many cases, they do not yet favor Perdue.
Perdue has room to improve within her own party, more than anywhere else. Democrats have a 47-36 registration advantage in this electorate, and she gets only 65% of her party to McCrory’s 82% of the GOP. Both candidates got roughly 90% of their respective bases two years ago. But while she has seen her standing with Democrats slightly rise since the last poll, she still loses a fifth of her party to the relatively moderate McCrory, a more typical finding in North Carolina, where many Democrats are somewhat conservative and vote accordingly, as they did in 2010. Had McCrory achieved that level of crossover support in 2008, instead of the less than 10% of Democrats he actually poached from Perdue’s stable, he would have soundly defeated her, but it was a polarizing election, with neither candidate persuading many of the other party’s voters.
“These numbers show that Governor Perdue is hardly dead in the water for reelection,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She’s behind now but if she can make up five points in two months she can certainly make up another seven over the next two years.”
PPP surveyed 575 North Carolina voters from January 20th to 23rd. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 33%
Disapprove………… 46%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 40%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 40%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 47%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 18%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
African-American …………………………………….. 22%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q9
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 20%
704………………………………………………………… 18%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 16%
919………………………………………………………… 19%
