Raleigh, N.C. – Bev Perdue’s job performance rating has slipped significantly since last month, but the closure she realized against her likely 2012 opponent Pat McCrory has not evaporated with it. After seeing some progress in PPP’s September survey, Perdue has regressed to a 37% approval rating, with 51% disapproving, down from 40-44. But she lags McCrory only 47-42, not much different than last month’s 45-41.
Though she continues to inch up with them on the approval front, Perdue has fallen back again with her own party against McCrory. She had gotten his support with them down to 14% a month ago, but that is back up to 21%, with her support down correspondingly from 74% to 68%. McCrory still locks up the GOP, 82-9. Perdue is able to run in place overall because of improvement with independents, from a 56-31 deficit to only 48-40. But these voters have been swinging considerably over time, and she lost them by over 20 points in 2008 while still winning overall. Her main objective is to shore up her base, which makes up almost half of voters. She also has to keep McCrory from running away with the male vote. She wins women by only eight points, but that is on par with her 2008 showing with her own gender. McCrory leads by 19 with men, versus four in 2008.
PPP also tested Democratic alternatives to the incumbent. Two-time Senate candidate Erskine Bowles would fight McCrory to a 42-all tie, while Attorney General Roy Cooper would trail only 42-39. But Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton would lag, 46-32, and State Rep. Bill Faison, 45-30. Faison would have an uphill battle even getting to the general. Perdue would start off with a 62-18 lead with Democratic primary voters.
“Bev Perdue doesn’t appear to have suffered too much damage from her comments about Congressional elections last week,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Her standing against Pat McCrory is virtually identical to last month and she’s polling closer to him than she has for most of the year.”
PPP surveyed 760 North Carolina voters, including 353 usual Democratic primary voters, from September 30th to October 3rd. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-3.6%, and +/-5.2% for the Democratic primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 37%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Erskine Bowles?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 36%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Roy Cooper?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Walter Dalton?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 8%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 68%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Faison?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 6%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 75%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q7 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 42%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 10%
Q8 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Erskine Bowles ……………………………………….. 42%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 16%
Q9 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Roy Cooper…………………………………………….. 39%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 19%
Q10 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Walter Dalton and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Walter Dalton ………………………………………….. 32%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 23%
Q11 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bill Faison and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 30%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 25%
Q12 If the Democratic candidates for Governor
were Bill Faison and Bev Perdue, who would
you vote for? (Asked only of 353 Democratic
primary voters)
Bill Faison ………………………………………………. 18%
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 62%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 22%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 76%
African-American …………………………………….. 20%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q18
252………………………………………………………… 13%
336………………………………………………………… 19%
704………………………………………………………… 19%
828………………………………………………………… 15%
910………………………………………………………… 13%
919………………………………………………………… 22%
