Raleigh, N.C. – Wednesday’s PPP release showed North Carolina voters standing overwhelmingly with North Carolina Governor Bev Perdue on her budget priorities and giving legislative Democrats a lead in the generic legislative ballot for the first time in over a year. Now, Perdue herself has carved into her persistent deficit to 2008 foe and likely 2012 opponent Pat McCrory.
Last month, McCrory led the governor by 11 points, 49-38. His advantage is still seven points in this month’s poll, 46-39. But that represents Perdue’s best showing in the early head-to-head matchup since January, when it was an identical seven points. Just two months ago, she was down twice that.
McCrory has had a marginal decline with Republicans, but is still earning considerably more of their support than Perdue is from her own party because he continues to get more than twice as much crossover support as the incumbent does. Where Perdue has really improved by leaps and bounds is with independents, from a 25-57 approval-disapproval spread to only 40-49—better than her overall 35-49, the same as last month. She has also leaped from losing 30-49 to McCrory to just 37-41.
“The increasing unpopularity of the Republican legislature is the best thing that’s happened for Bev Perdue’s reelection prospects since she took office,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “She continues to be pretty unpopular but now some folks are deciding she’s better than the alternative.”
McCrory enjoys at least a slightly more positive image than his partymates at the helm of the General Assembly. Voters are essentially split over who they prefer to run the state between them and the governor. 41% choose the legislative Republicans and 40% the governor. Independents side 39-36 with the GOP, but while 23% of Democrats plan to vote for McCrory, only 14% side with the Republicans on this question.
PPP surveyed 835 North Carolina voters from May 12th to 15th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Bev
Perdue’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 35%
Disapprove………… 49%
Not sure ……………. 16%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pat McCrory?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q3 If the candidates for Governor next year were
Democrat Bev Perdue and Republican Pat
McCrory, who would you vote for?
Bev Perdue…………………………………………….. 39%
Pat McCrory……………………………………………. 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
Approve ………………38%
Disapprove…………..33%
Not sure ………………29%
Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Hagan’s job performance?
Approve ………………41%
Disapprove…………..38%
Not sure ………………21%
Q6 Do you have more faith in Governor Perdue or
Legislative Republicans to lead the state?
Governor Perdue …………………………………….. 40%
Legislative Republicans ……………………………. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 15%
Moderate………………………………………………… 31%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 26%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 18%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 16%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 73%
African-American …………………………………….. 23%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
Q13
252………………………………………………………… 12%
336………………………………………………………… 23%
704………………………………………………………… 15%
828………………………………………………………… 13%
910………………………………………………………… 14%
919………………………………………………………… 23%
