Raleigh, N.C. – A bare plurality of Pennsylvania voters (35%) think there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship, but nearly as many (33%) think gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions, and another 30% favor full marriage equality. So an overwhelming 63% think gay couples should have all the legal rights that married heterosexual couples do. Pluralities of 40% of Democrats and 37% of independents prefer full marriage rather than just civil unions, and even a combined 51% of Republicans and the same proportion of voters over age 65 want some form of domestic partnership.
Republicans flipped five of Pennsylvania’s Democratic-held U.S. House seats last fall as well as Arlen Specter’s Senate seat, turning what was Democrats’ 14-7 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation into a 13-8 edge for the GOP. But if voters could head to the polls now, they would select the Democratic candidate for Congress on their ballot over the Republican by a 42-36 margin. Independents still prefer the GOP, 29-20, but 52% of them are not sure, and they make up only 11% of the electorate. The main change is in turnout. In PPP’s final poll of the state before last November’s election, Democrats held a slim 46-44 edge over Republican voters, but Democrats are awaking from their slumber after a dismal cycle.
Voters’ opinions of their long-serving and recently retired governor and senator have not much improved since before they left office. Ed Rendell left the governor’s mansion with a 34-43 approval-disapproval mark, and now fares even worse. A similar 33% have a favorable opinion, but 55% an unfavorable one. Arlen Specter has barely inched up, from a 29-60 approval margin last fall to a 32-53 favorability rating now.
Voters are pretty ambivalent about last fall’s Democratic nominee for Specter’s seat, Joe Sestak. 32% see him favorably, 31% unfavorably, and most (37%) are not sure.
PPP surveyed 593 Pennsylvania voters from April 7th to 10th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ed Rendell?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Arlen Specter?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 If there was an election today do you think you
would vote for the Democratic or Republican
candidate for Congress from your district, or
are you not sure?
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q5 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry …………………………………………………….. 30%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry ………………………………… 33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple’s relationship ………………………………… 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q6 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q10 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African American……………………………………… 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Raleigh, N.C. – For the first time since March, Republican Mark Kirk has a small lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias to succeed Roland Burris, appointed by former Governor Rod Blagojevich to temporarily fill President Obama’s vacated Senate seat. Kirk has 40% to Giannoulias’ 36%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones’ share continuing to slowly decline, now at 8%, and Libertarian Mike Labno measured for the first time at 3%. In mid-August, Giannoulias led with 37% to Kirk’s 35% and Jones’ 9%.
The difference is, as many places, voter enthusiasm on the GOP side. Kirk pulls 79% of his own party, up from 74% last time, while Giannoulias earns only 68% of Democrats, down from 72%. That is because Kirk now gets 9% of Democrats to Giannoulias’ 2% of Republicans, when in August, the Democrat got 6% crossover support to Kirk’s 5%. With the entrance of Labno at 5% of unaffiliated and third-party voters, Kirk’s lead among them, while still healthy at 41-27-13 over Giannoulias and Jones, is slightly down from 36-20-15 in the previous survey.
This party unity gap and resulting tight race with two third-party candidates splitting 11% of the vote reflect the tepid feelings voters have for their major-party choices in this election. Only 39% say they are excited about who they themselves are voting for in the Senate race, while 45% wish someone better were running. At 38-44, the plurality Democrats reflect the overall voter sentiment, but Republicans are flipped, at 45-39. Independents are by far the least satisfied with their options, at 32-54.
Kirk’s improvement in the horse race has come despite voters slightly souring on him personally in the last month. He and Giannoulias are now equally disliked, with respective 33-47 and 33-48 favorability ratings. Voters have split slightly in favor of the Democrat, 7-6, since August, but against the Republican, 7-13.
“This election is in some ways a referendum on President Obama, and with some seats moving back toward the Democrats of late, and others suddenly moving toward the Republicans, this race could end up deciding control of the Senate,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
