Raleigh, N.C. – Tim Pawlenty’s favor with the voters who will decide the Republican presidential nomination has been rising in the last few weeks after he officially unveiled his campaign, and that includes those in his home state.
When PPP last polled the nomination battle in Minnesota almost six months ago, Pawlenty was leading, but with only 24%, versus the third of the vote he gets now—and that comes even with the inclusion of fellow Minnesotan Michele Bachmann, who was not a candidate in the December poll. Then, the second-place finisher, Sarah Palin, was much closer, at 17%, followed by Mike Huckabee’s 15%, Mitt Romney’s 13%, Newt Gingrich’s 11%, Ron Paul’s 9%, and two other candidates no longer included, Mitch Daniels and John Thune, at 3% and 2%, respectively.
Now, Bachmann is a distant second to Pawlenty’s 33%, at 14% over Romney’s and Palin’s 11%, Herman Cain’s 10%, Paul’s 9%, Gingrich’s 4%, and Jon Huntsman’s 2%. Gingrich has been plummeting almost everywhere, going in the opposite direction of Pawlenty and Cain, who has debuted in recent PPP polls with double-digit support, something it took Pawlenty months of appearances and buzz to generate. Huntsman’s media tours have yet to garner him more than a pittance anywhere. If Palin were to not go forward with the campaign she seems to be building, Pawlenty and Bachmann would be the only beneficiaries, jumping to 38% and 19%, with everyone else holding steady.
An earlier release showed that most Minnesota Republicans want Bachmann to challenge Amy Klobuchar rather than Barack Obama, while most of them prefer Pawlenty to run for president. His 76-15 favorability rating is by far the highest, with Bachmann’s 68-23 next best and Palin’s 66-26 not far behind. Romney and Cain are barely above ground, while Gingrich has, as everywhere PPP has polled of late, divebombed, now the only candidate disliked. He has fallen 39 points from 55-22 in December to 35-41 now.
PPP surveyed 374 usual Minnesota Republican primary voters from May 27th to 30th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-5.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 35%
Unfavorable……….. 41%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 66%
Unfavorable……….. 26%
Not sure ……………. 8%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 45%
Unfavorable……….. 37%
Not sure ……………. 18%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable ………….. 68%
Unfavorable……….. 23%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable ………….. 32%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 45%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Pawlenty?
Favorable ………….. 76%
Unfavorable……….. 15%
Not sure ……………. 9%
Q7 Generally speaking, do you vote in Democratic
or Republican primaries?
Democratic primaries ……………………………….. 0%
Republican primaries ……………………………….100%
Don’t usually vote in primaries …………………… 0%
Q8 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 14%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 4%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 11%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 33%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 6%
Q9 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 19%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 5%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 38%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 11%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 37%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
