Raleigh, N.C. – Fueled by a high level of unhappiness with the direction of the Republican Party, Rand Paul appears to be poised for an easy victory over Trey Grayson in Tuesday’s Kentucky Senate primary. He leads PPP’s final poll 52-34.
There are more Republicans planning to vote on Tuesday (41%) who are unhappy with the current direction of their party than ones who are happy with it (36%). Among those discontented folks Paul has a staggering 59-28 lead which more than offsets the 47-45 lead Grayson has with the voters who think the party’s current course is fine.
A Paul victory will be a clear signal that Kentucky Republicans want the party to move further to the right. 32% of likely primary voters think that the party is too liberal and Paul has a 71-21 advantage with them that accounts for almost his entirely polling lead. With the other 68% of voters who don’t think the party’s too liberal Paul is ahead only 45-41.
What a Paul victory will not be is a sign that Kentucky Republicans want Mitch McConnell to go. 64% of voters think the winner of the primary should vote for McConnell as the GOP leader in the Senate to only 18% who say no. Even among Paul voters there is 58/22 support for keeping the state’s senior Senator in his current leadership position.
Another thing Paul’s victory will not be is a particular mandate for Libertarian Republicanism. We did a test of some of the leading 2012 GOP candidates in the state and Ron Paul registered at just 8%, well behind Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney.
“Rand Paul’s remarkable success is one of the biggest stories of the 2010 election cycle so far,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It’s a clear sign of unhappiness within the Republican Party and should have establishment candidate facing primaries nationwide a little nervous about their prospects.”
PPP surveyed 1,065 likely Republican primary voters on May 15th and 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The Republican candidates for US Senate are
Trey Grayson, Gurley Martin, Rand Paul, Jon
Scribner, and John Stephenson. If the election
was today who would you vote for?
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 34%
Gurley Martin ………………………………………….. 4%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 52%
Jon Scribner……………………………………………. 1%
John Stephenson…………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Trey Grayson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 29%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 60%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Will you vote for Trey Grayson in the fall if he is
the Republican nominee?
Yes ……………………. 55%
No ……………………… 22%
Not Sure……………… 23%
Q5 Will you vote for Rand Paul in the fall if he is
the Republican nominee?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 67%
No …………………………………………………………. 19%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q6 Do you think that Trey Grayson is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 31%
Too conservative …………………………………….. 6%
About right ……………………………………………… 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q7 Do you think that Rand Paul is too liberal, too
conservative, or about right?
Too liberal ………………………………………………. 17%
Too conservative …………………………………….. 12%
About right ……………………………………………… 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Generally speaking do you prefer to vote for
candidates who have prior experience in
elected office, or those who have never before
served in elected office?
Candidates with elected experience …………… 32%
Candidates who have not served before……… 36%
Makes no difference ………………………………… 32%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the current
direction of the Republican Party?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 41%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 23%
Q10 Do you support or oppose the goals of the ‘Tea
Party’ movement?
Approve …………………………………………………. 69%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 11%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 20%
Q11 Do you personally identify as a member of the
‘Tea Party’ movement?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 29%
No …………………………………………………………. 49%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q12 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too Liberal……………………………………………… 32%
Too Conservative…………………………………….. 15%
About Right …………………………………………….. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q13 Are you more concerned with the economy or
with national security right now?
Economy………………………………………………… 56%
National security ……………………………………… 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q14 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 57%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q15 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
Bunning’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q16 Do you think the winner of the primary should
support Mitch McConnell for Republican leader
in the Senate?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 64%
No …………………………………………………………. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q17 Looking back, do you support or oppose the
War in Iraq?
Support ………………………………………………….. 67%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q18 Do you consider yourself to be a Libertarian?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 19%
No …………………………………………………………. 81%
Q19 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 23%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 25%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q20 Which Senate candidate do you think currently
holds statewide office in Kentucky: Trey
Grayson or Rand Paul?
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 64%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 21%
Don’t know……………………………………………… 15%
Q21 Which Senate candidate do you think opposed
the War in Iraq: Trey Grayson or Rand Paul?
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 19%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 49%
Don’t know……………………………………………… 33%
Q22 Which Senate candidate do you think has been
endorsed by Mitch McConnell?
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 77%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 9%
Don’t know……………………………………………… 14%
Q23 Which Senate candidate did you have the most
exposure to during the primary campaign
through television ads, mailers, phone calls
from the campaign, etc.?
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 50%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 50%
Q24 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 50%
Man……………………………………………………….. 50%
Q25 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q26 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 20%
Conservative…………………………………………… 74%
