Raleigh, N.C. – It is appearing less and less likely that Rep. Paul Ryan, now wielding his long-coveted House Budget Committee gavel, will make a bid for the White House next year, but if he does, he could be assured at least his home-state Republicans would be solidly behind him.  In his absence, Mike Huckabee takes the top spot from Sarah Palin, who led in the previous test of the primary race in early December.

Ryan has 30% of the vote, way ahead of Huckabee’s 17%, Newt Gingrich’s 12%, Mitt Romney’s and Palin’s 9%, Ron Paul’s 5%, Tim Pawlenty’s 4%, and Mitch Daniels’ 3%.  A greater share of potential voters than all but Ryan’s and Huckabee’s supporters, 13%, are undecided or favor someone unnamed.  Among the 19% minority who call themselves moderates, Huckabee actually has a narrow 21-17 lead over Ryan, but with the two conservative groups, who together make up over three-quarters of voters, Ryan has either 34% or 35%, and Huckabee only 15% or 16%.

In the event Ryan bows out of consideration for the presidential nomination, Huckabee would take the lead at 23% to Gingrich’s and Palin’s 15%, Romney’s 12%, and Pawlenty’s 10%, with Paul and Daniels picking up no further support.  The second-place finisher is actually the 17% who have yet to decide or are longing for someone else.  Pawlenty, Huckabee, and Palin get the biggest boosts from Ryan’s absence.  Pawlenty is from neighboring Minnesota; in most states he has support in the low single digits.

Romney and Palin have both faded since December, and Huckabee surged.  Then, Palin was at 21%, Huckabee 18%, Romney 17%, Gingrich 13%, and Pawlenty the same 10%.

The tough math for Romney continues here.  His standing fades rightward: he places second to Huckabee at 19% with moderates, but falls to third at 14% with the 43%-plurality somewhat conservative, and only fourth at 7% with the 34% who are very conservative.  Gingrich is strongest with the two conservative groups, getting 17% or 16%, but only half that with moderates.  Huckabee gets 21-26% across the board, and Palin 10-18%.

Yesterday’s release showed that Huckabee would be the strongest candidate against President Obama in Wisconsin, trailing by seven points, half the president’s victory margin over John McCain in 2008.  Ryan would be next closest, down nine, with Romney down ten, Gingrich 12, and Palin 19.

PPP surveyed 400 usual Wisconsin Republican primary voters from February 24^th to 27^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 54%
Unfavorable……….. 23%
Not sure ……………. 23%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 58%
Unfavorable……….. 18%
Not sure ……………. 24%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 65%
Unfavorable……….. 25%
Not sure ……………. 11%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 49%
Unfavorable……….. 25%
Not sure ……………. 26%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable ………….. 67%
Unfavorable……….. 10%
Not sure ……………. 24%

Q6 Given the choices of Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Paul
Ryan who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 17%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 9%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 9%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 30%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%

Q7 If the choices for President were just Mitch
Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah
Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 23%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 12%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 17%

Q8 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 19%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 43%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%

Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 45%
Man……………………………………………………….. 55%

Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%