Raleigh, N.C. – Though he may not heed their desire once he ascends to his long-coveted Budget Committee chairmanship in January, Paul Ryan is far-and-away the choice of his party’s voters to take on either Herb Kohl or another Democrat for the Senate in 2012. The Presidential primary is another matter. Very similarly to Ohio and many other states, the jockeying to take on President Obama is about as close as can be, with all four nominal frontrunners within the margin of error of the lead.
Ryan has a majority in a seven-candidate slate of mostly little-known figures, topping the best known, Tommy Thompson, by a 52-14 margin, almost 4:1. Beyond that is a jumble of also-rans. Since neither Ryan nor Thompson currently appears eager to run, one of these may very well end up being the nominee: former Congressman Mark Green at 9%, J.B. Van Hollen and incoming lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch each at 6%, soon-to-be Congressman Sean Duffy at 5%, and failed Senate candidate Dave Westlake at 1%, with 8% not sure or preferring an unnamed option. Tuesday’s release showed that Ryan would also be more competitive in the general election than Thompson or Van Hollen, the other two candidates tested against Kohl and Russ Feingold.
Favorability ratings for Green, Kleefisch, Duffy, and Westlake were not tested, but of the Republican candidates measured, Ryan is unsurprisingly the most popular with the GOP, with a stellar 67-7 grade, 12 points better than Van Hollen’s 58-10, and 18 better than Thompson’s 65-23. The weakness of the presidential candidates is further highlighted by the fact that three times as many hardcore Republican voters dislike the most popular of those four, Sarah Palin, as have a negative opinion of Ryan.
In that race, Palin does come out ahead with 21%, but that is barely more than Mike Huckabee’s 18%, Mitt Romney’s 17%, Newt Gingrich’s 13%, and neighboring Governor Tim Pawlenty’s 10%. Ron Paul’s 4%, John Thune’s 3%, and Mitch Daniels’ 2% round out the field, but 12% are uncommitted to any candidate. Essentially, this race is a crapshoot, as in most states. If Thune or some other dark horse were to catch fire, he could instantly join the usual four at the top of the heap.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Wisconsin Republican primary voters from December 10th to 12th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 59%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 71%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of JB Van Hollen?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 58%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 33%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Paul Ryan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 67%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 7%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tommy Thompson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 65%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 23%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q8 Between Sean Duffy, Mark Green, Rebecca
Kleefisch, Paul Ryan, Tommy Thompson, JB
Van Hollen, and Dave Westlake who would you
most like to see as the Republican Senate
nominee in 2012?
Sean Duffy……………………………………………… 5%
Mark Green…………………………………………….. 9%
Rebecca Kleefisch …………………………………… 6%
Paul Ryan ………………………………………………. 52%
Tommy Thompson …………………………………… 14%
JB Van Hollen …………………………………………. 6%
Dave Westlake………………………………………… 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 8%
Q9 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 18%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 17%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 2%
Moderate………………………………………………… 21%
Conservative…………………………………………… 77%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 4%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
