Raleigh, N.C. – There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.
Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he’s also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.
Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul’s strength in Iowa and Barack Obama’s in 2008- he’s doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:
-59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18. But among the 41% of likely voters who are ‘new’ for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%.
-He’s also very strong with young voters. Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich. With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.
-Among Republicans Gingrich leads Paul 25-17. But with voters who identify as Democrats or independents, 21% of the electorate in a year with no action on the Democratic side, Paul leads Gingrich 34-14 with Romney at 17%.
“Newt Gingrich’s momentum is fading in Iowa,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Meanwhile Ron Paul is building an unusual coalition of support for a Republican primary. The big question is: will they really turn out?”
PPP surveyed 555 likely Republican caucus voters from December 11th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.2%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 22%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 21%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 60%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 40%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 14%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 7%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 10%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 8%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 25%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 55%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 61%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 43%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q12 Did you watch the debate in Des Moines on
Saturday night?
Yes………………………………………………………… 52%
No …………………………………………………………. 48%
Q13 In 2008 did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican caucus, or did you not vote in a
caucus?
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 11%
Republican caucus…………………………………… 59%
Didn’t vote in a caucus……………………………… 29%
Q14 (Among Republican caucus goers) Did you
vote for Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred
Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul, Rudy
Giuliani, or someone else in the 2008 caucus,
or do you not remember?
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 32%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Fred Thompson ………………………………………. 11%
John McCain…………………………………………… 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 8%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 4%
Someone else…………………………………………. 1%
Don’t remember ………………………………………. 7%
Q15 Which of the following things is most important
to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the
economy, government spending and reducing
the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage
and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign
policy and national security?
Jobs/economy…………………………………………. 27%
Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 36%
Taxes …………………………………………………….. 3%
Social issues…………………………………………… 11%
Illegal immigration……………………………………. 5%
Foreign policy/national security………………….. 7%
Someone else…………………………………………. 1%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q16 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 32%
Their issue positions ………………………………… 56%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
Q17 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 30%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 2%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 14%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 16%
Q18 How much attention have you paid to the
televised debates between the candidates so
far: a lot of attention, some attention, or not
much attention at all?
A lot of attention………………………………………. 38%
Some attention………………………………………… 39%
Not much attention at all …………………………… 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 Have you seen any of the candidates speak in
person, and if so, how many?
Have not seen any of the candidates in
person…………………………………………………….61%
Have seen only one candidate…………………… 10%
Have seen more than one candidate ………….. 15%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q20 When deciding who to vote for, how important
is it to you that a candidate has spent a lot of
time in Iowa: very important, somewhat
important, or not important at all?
Very important…………………………………………. 22%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 43%
Not important at all…………………………………… 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q21 If a candidate had a history of cheating on their
spouse, would that raise major concerns for
you, some concerns for you, or would it not
concern you at all?
Would raise major concerns ……………………… 31%
Would raise some concerns………………………. 36%
Would not concern you at all……………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q22 If a candidate had a history of supporting an
individual mandate for health care would that
raise major concerns for you, some concerns
for you, or would it not concern you at all?
Would raise major concerns ……………………… 33%
Would raise some concerns………………………. 31%
Would not concern you at all……………………… 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q23 Do you support or oppose gays openly serving
in the military?
Support ………………………………………………….. 28%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 31%
Q24 Do you believe that there’s a ‘War on
Christmas,’ or not?
There is a War on Christmas …………………….. 46%
There is not…………………………………………….. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q25 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Donald Trump?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 26%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 34%
Q26 Would you be more or less likely to vote for a
candidate who participated in a debate
moderated by Donald Trump, or would it not
make a difference?
More likely………………………………………………. 9%
Less likely ………………………………………………. 30%
Woudn’t make a difference ……………………….. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%
Q27 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Republican establishment?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 31%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 38%
Q28 Who do you think has stronger values: Newt
Gingrich or Mitt Romney?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 43%
Q29 Who do you think is going to win the
Republican nomination for President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 26%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%
Q30 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Tebow? (Asked only of 171 respondents)
Favorable……………………………………………….. 48%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 40%
Q31 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q32 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q33 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 4%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 35%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 42%
Q34 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 4%
Republican……………………………………………… 78%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 17%
Q35 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
