Raleigh, N.C. – With two weeks to go until the Kentucky primary, Rand Paul and Dan Mongiardo are favored to face off for Jim Bunning’s Senate seat in November. Paul’s father has some work to do in the potential 2012 presidential field, however.
Almost unchanged from the last time PPP polled the GOP primary in December 2009 (44-25 with no other candidates polled), Paul leads party favorite Trey Grayson 46-28, with Gurley Martin and John Stephenson each at 2%, Jon Scribner getting less than 1%, and 21% having still undecided.
Mongiardo has a slimmer lead over Jack Conway, 36-27, with James Buckmaster and Darlene Price each at 4%, Maurice Sweeney at 2%, and 27% undecided. Neither Mongiardo nor Conway is better liked, but 51% of voters have no opinion of Conway, versus 36% for Mongiardo, so there is more room for Conway to grow his support.
Paul’s anti-establishment success coincides with a strong 72% of Kentucky Republicans who support the goals of the “Tea Party” movement, and the weak 45-30 approval-disapproval of the current direction of the GOP. Interestingly, however, only 28% identify themselves as members of this movement, to 44% who do not.
Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin tie for the lead in the early presidential matchup, at 24%, with Newt Gingrich at 18%, Mitt Romney at 13%, Ron Paul at 6%, and 15% undecided. Among Tea Partiers, Gingrich and Huckabee are at 25, Palin at 23, and Paul at only 2.
“Trey Grayson has made no headway in over four months, and it looks like Rand Paul is set to deliver a serious blow to the national Republican Party establishment,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 459 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6%, and 363 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1%, on May 1st and 2nd. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Kentucky Republican Survey Results:
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve ……………… 68%
Disapprove………….. 20%
Not sure ……………… 12%
Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
Bunning’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 43%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 27%
Q3 Do you have a higher opinion of Mitch
McConnell or Jim Bunning?
Mitch McConnell ……………………………………… 67%
Jim Bunning ……………………………………………. 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Trey Grayson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 45%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 32%
Q6 If the Republican candidates for US Senate
were Trey Grayson, Gurley Martin, Rand Paul,
Jon Scribner, and John Stephenson who would
you vote for?
Trey Grayson………………………………………….. 28%
Gurley Martin ………………………………………….. 2%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 46%
Jon Scribner……………………………………………. 0%
John Stephenson…………………………………….. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 24%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 24%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%
Q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the current
direction of the Republican Party? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 30%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 25%
Q9 Do you support or oppose the goals of the ‘Tea
Party’ movement?
Support ………………………………………………….. 72%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Kentucky Democratic Survey Results:
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Barack
Obama’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve…………….. 59%
Disapprove………… 36%
Not Sure……………. 4%
Q2 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you don’t have an opinion,
press 3.
Support ………………………………………………….. 52%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
No Opinion……………………………………………… 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 51%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Mongiardo?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 37%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 36%
Q5 The Democratic candidates for US Senate are
James Buckmaster, Jack Conway, Dan
Mongiardo, Darlene Price, and Maurice
Sweeney. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
James Buckmaster ………………………………….. 4%
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 27%
Dan Mongiardo ……………………………………….. 36%
Darlene Price ………………………………………….. 4%
Maurice Sweeney ……………………………………. 2%
Undecided………………………………………………. 27%
Q6 Who did you vote for President last year? If
John McCain, press 1. If Barack Obama,
press 2. If someone else or you don’t
remember, press 3.
McCain…………………………………………………… 32%
Obama…………………………………………………… 60%
Someone else/don’t remember ………………….. 8%
Q7 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 20%
Moderate………………………………………………… 52%
Conservative…………………………………………… 28%
Q8 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 56%
Man……………………………………………………….. 44%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African American …………………………………….. 12%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 24%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 23%
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