Raleigh, N.C. – Rand Paul has expanded his lead in the Kentucky Senate race even
further over the last week and is headed for a blowout win. His margin over Jack
Conway is 55-40.

Kentucky is obviously a conservative state. Conway’s ability to win was always going to
depend on getting a lot of folks who supported John McCain in 2008 to vote Democratic
for the Senate this time around. The most amazing finding on this final poll is that Rand
Paul is actually picking up more Obama voters (15%) than Conway is McCain voters
(9%). That’s the formula for a landslide.

Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one. That didn’t have a ton to do with Rand Paul- his favorability in early September was 45/40 and now it’s 48/43, basically unchanged. The shift is more a reflection of Jack Conway’s image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days. Seven weeks ago his favorability split evenly with 36% of voters rating him positively and negatively alike. Now he’s very unpopular with only 34% of voters saying they like him and 52% expressing unfavorable opinions toward him.

In the end Rand Paul did not have any trouble reunifying his party after the Republican
primary- GOP voters are going for him by an 88-8 margin. Conway meanwhile is
bleeding Democratic support. He’s getting only 61% of the vote from his own party
while a full 34% say they plan to vote for Paul. Paul also has a 48-40 advantage with
independents.

Barack Obama’s approval rating in Kentucky is 31% with 62% of voters disapproving of
him. This race may have been a stretch for Dems even with a perfect campaign and
candidate. And in the end they had neither.

“Very few people would have predicted this five months ago but Rand Paul ended up
being a stronger general election candidate than Jack Conway,” said Dean Debnam,
President of Public Policy Polling. “He was always favored in this race but he’ll win by a
surprisingly large margin.”

PPP surveyed 1,021 likely Kentucky voters from October 28th to 30th. The margin of
error for the survey is +/- 3.1%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Jack Conway and Republican Rand Paul. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Jack Conway ………………………………………….. 40%
Rand Paul ………………………………………………. 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jack Conway?
Favorable ………….. 34%
Unfavorable……….. 52%
Not sure ……………. 14%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rand Paul?
Favorable ………….. 48%
Unfavorable……….. 43%
Not sure ……………. 9%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 31%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 62%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

Q5 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch
McConnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%

Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jim
Bunning’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q7 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Steve Beshear’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 48%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 56%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 40%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 4%

Q9 Do you identify yourself as a liberal, moderate,
or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 42%
Conservative…………………………………………… 44%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 53%
Republican……………………………………………… 37%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 10%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 89%
African-American …………………………………….. 6%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%

Q14 Have you already cast your ballot for this
year’s election?
Yes………………………………………………………… 7%
No …………………………………………………………. 93%