Raleigh, N.C. –Alaska’s longtime Congressman Don Young and Sarah Palin’s successor to the governorship, Sean Parnell, are both strong favorites to remain in office. Young leads Democratic congressional nominee Harry Crawford, 55-36, and Parnell tops Democratic gubernatorial pick Ethan Berkowitz by an almost identical 55-37 margin.
Parnell, in office for only a little over a year, is well liked, with a 50-36 job approval rating. With over 37 years in Washington, by comparison,Young has only a 49-44 approval margin, stronger than for many incumbents of either party in this anti-politician environment, but not as high as for many veteran lawmakers who, like Young, routinely cruise to re-election. Facing ethics charges, Young did, however, barely scrape by in both the primary and general election in 2008. He defeated Parnell in the primary by only 304 votes, and he beat Berkowitz in November by 5%.
Berkowitz and Crawford are only moderately well liked, though Crawford is far less known than the other three candidates. He posts a 25-22 personal favorability mark; Berkowitz sits at 41-36. Both Democrats are liked much better among independents than the incumbents, with Berkowitz at 47-29 to Parnell’s 48-39, and Crawford at 30-20 to Young’s 43-49.
But despite that favor with Alaska’s 42% plurality of nonpartisans and third-partisans, both Parnell, at 49-39, and Young, at 47-39, win them in the head-to-head matchups. Republicans also have a 38-20 edge in the likely turnout, and while Berkowitz and Parnell have their parties equally united, Young has the edge over Crawford.
“If Democrats couldn’t unseat Don Young in 2008, with a federal investigation against him in the news and a higher turnout for Obama, they weren’t likely to this year, and this poll confirms it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 1,306 likely Alaska voters on August 27th and 28th. The margin of error is +/-2.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ethan Berkowitz?
Favorable ………….. 41%
Unfavorable……….. 36%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q3 The candidates for Governor are Republican
Sean Parnell and Democrat Ethan Berkowitz.
If the election was today, who would you vote
for?
Sean Parnell …………………………………………… 55%
Ethan Berkowitz………………………………………. 37%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congressman Don Young’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 49%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Harry Crawford?
Favorable ………….. 25%
Unfavorable……….. 22%
Not sure ……………. 53%
Q6 The candidates for House are Republican Don
Young and Democrat Harry Crawford. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Don Young ……………………………………………… 55%
Harry Crawford ……………………………………….. 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 8%
Q7 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 55%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 6%
Q8 If you are a liberal, press 1. If a moderate,
press 2. If a conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 14%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 42%
Q9 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q10 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 20%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 42%
Q11 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 82%
Other……………………………………………………… 18%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If older than
65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
