Raleigh, N.C. – Despite Tuesday’s release showing a dire outlook for Democrats in succeeding Kay Bailey Hutchison, today’s results indicate President Obama is poised to make a run at winning Texas’ expanded 38 electoral votes next year. Mike Huckabee is the only candidate who currently puts the president in a larger hole than his 12-point loss to John McCain in 2008. Against everyone else, including Governor Rick Perry, the result is a statistical tie or just outside the margin of error. In fact, Perry and Sarah Palin would be only even-money to keep Texas from turning blue for the first time in 36 years.
Huckabee tops Obama by 16 points, 55-39. Mitt Romney has a respectable 49-42 advantage, and Newt Gingrich a 48-43 lead. But homegrown Perry only matches the president at 45%, and Palin posts an insignificant 47-46 edge.
The size of Obama’s deficit is largely a reflection of how independents swing. At 27% of Texas’ electorate, they are almost as numerous as Democrats (31%), and Obama wins their support against every opponent but Huckabee—50-31 over Perry, 54-37 over Palin, 48-34 over Gingrich, and 43-41 over Romney. Huckabee reverses that to a 49-38 lead with unaffiliated voters. Huckabee is also the only candidate to take more Democrats (12%) than the president does Republicans (6%). Whereas Obama has a slight party-unity advantage over most of the others, getting 83-87% of Democrats to their 80-86% of Republicans, Huckabee gets 92% of his party, with Obama at 85% of Democrats.
Perry is only slightly more popular than the president in this deep red state where 42% of voters are Republicans, with a poor 42-50 approval rating to Obama’s 42-55. Perry was soundly re-elected last November, but in a much more Republican electorate than he would face in a presidential year. Huckabee is extremely popular, with a 51-30 favorability rating. Romney is the only other one above water, at 40-37, with Gingrich at 38-44 and Palin at 42-53.
“At the end of the day, it’s unlikely even the most unelectable Republican loses Texas in even the largest re-election landslide scenario for President Obama,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But this certainly drives home how unpopular Sarah Palin is right now, and how much more popular Obama is than most Democrats.”
PPP surveyed 892 Texas voters from January 14th to 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 38%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Rick Perry’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 42%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 50%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 43%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 48%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 39%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 55%
Undecided………………………………………………. 5%
Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 46%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 7%
Q10 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 42%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 49%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q11 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Perry, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 45%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay
Bailey Hutchison’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 45%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 37%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Cornyn’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 44%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 24%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 13%
Moderate………………………………………………… 37%
Conservative…………………………………………… 50%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q16 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 31%
Republican……………………………………………… 42%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 27%
Q17 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 17%
White …………………………………………………….. 65%
African-American …………………………………….. 13%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q18 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
