Raleigh, N.C. – Things could not be closer in the early race to face President Obama in 2012, as the top four Republicans expected to vie for that chance are within five points of each other among all Americans who say they usually vote in Republican primaries. The picture hardly changes even when voters are asked their second choice.
Sarah Palin pulls 21% to Newt Gingrich’s 19%, Mitt Romney’s 18%, Mike Huckabee’s 16%, Ron Paul’s and Tim Pawlenty’s 5%, John Thune’s 3%, and Mitch Daniels’ 2%. To make things even more chaotic, 12%—almost as many as favor the bottom four combined—are either completely unsure or want another candidate to jump in. If some unnamed contender or one of the less-supported options managed to pick up momentum with this group, he or she would instantly join the conversation near the top.
There is a sizeable ideological divide. As is typically the case, Romney’s strength is among moderates, with 25% to Huckabee’s 20%, Palin’s 13%, and Gingrich’s 10%. Unfortunately for Romney, self-proclaimed centrists make up only 28% of the nationwide electorate. The 71% who call themselves conservative give Palin and Gingrich a huge boost—the two are essentially tied with right-wingers at 24% and 23%, respectively. Romney drops way down to 15%, just nosing out Huckabee’s 14%.
Despite his conservative base of support, Gingrich’s supporters would actually go most heavily to the two favored by the moderates, Huckabee (31%) and Romney (27%), if he were not in the race. 34% of Huckabee backers would go to Palin, with Gingrich way behind at 19%. Palin’s voters are more spread out, but would fall mostly to Gingrich and Huckabee, and Romney’s to Palin and Huckabee. Pawlenty’s presence continues to hurt Romney, as 35% of his partisans would move to Romney, far ahead of Palin’s 17%.
On another front, RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s persistence in seeking a second term at the helm of the party could run into a significant roadblock if committeemen and other party officials listen to the base. The most frequent Republican voters are against re-upping Steele by more than a 2:1 margin, with 47% opposed and only 23% supportive.
PPP surveyed 400 typical national Republican primary voters from November 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………. 63%
Unfavorable ………… 17%
Not sure ……………… 21%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 57%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 24%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marco Rubio?
Favorable……………. 43%
Unfavorable ………… 16%
Not sure ……………… 41%
Q6 Do you think the Republican Party is too liberal,
too conservative, or about right?
Too liberal………….. 26%
Too conservative … 15%
About right…………. 54%
Not sure ……………. 5%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 19%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 16%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 3%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 12%
Q8 Given the same list of choices who would your
second choice be for President in 2012?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 3%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 20%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 20%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 4%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 19%
Q9 Would you like to see Michael Steele continue
as chairman of the Republican Party or would
you rather he was replaced?
Continue ………………………………………………… 23%
Be replaced…………………………………………….. 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 30%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 1%
Moderate………………………………………………… 28%
Conservative…………………………………………… 71%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 45%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 19%
