Raleigh, N.C. – Right now, Rick Santorum is far-and-away the choice of his party to take on Bob Casey next year, but that is when he is tested in a field of candidates unknown to at least two-thirds of even these hardest-core Republican voters.  If he chooses instead to go ahead with a presidential bid, his rationale for getting the GOP’s nod against Obama would not include the overwhelming home-base support on which candidates usually count, as he runs fifth behind the usual frontrunners in his own state.  Luckily for him, Pennsylvania’s presidential primary generally matters little.

In an eight-candidate Senate slate, Santorum dominates with 45% support; everyone else is in single digits—Jim Gerlach at 9%, Charlie Dent and Mark Schweiker at 8% each, 18^th-District Rep. Tim Murphy at 7%, State Sen. Jake Corman at 3%, and Marc Scaringi and State Sen. Kim Ward each at 1%, with 19% undecided or preferring someone else.

If Santorum chooses not to butt heads with Casey again, he leaves a void any of these candidates—or someone else—can easily jump in and fill.  As the only candidate to have served statewide other than Santorum, Schweiker seems to benefit most.  But the standings largely fall on name recognition, and a full third are unsure of who they would support.  Schweiker currently leads with 18%, followed by Gerlach’s 14%, Murphy’s 13%, Dent’s 10%, Corman’s 9%, Ward’s 2%, and Scaringi’s 1%.  Scaringi is the only candidate who is so far officially in the race, so he will be able to say he started out with literally nothing if he goes on to win the nomination.

In the presidential field, Santorum only pulls 11%, behind Mike Huckabee’s 21%, Sarah Palin’s 18%, Newt Gingrich’s 16%, and Mitt Romney’s 14%, with Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Ron Paul at 4%, and Mitch Daniels at 1%.  Santorum’s absence only seems to help the frontrunners slightly.  Huckabee is boosted to 26%, Palin to 21%, Romney to 16%, and Gingrich actually falls to 15%.

“Rick Santorum is clearly itching to get back into the game, and he could clear the field for the Senate nomination, but no one will be scared to go up against him here or anywhere else in the race for the White House,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 400 usual Pennsylvania Republican primary voters from January 3^rd to 5^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 20%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 17%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 63%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 54%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Charlie Dent?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 7%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 82%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Gerlach?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 11%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 76%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Schweiker?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 22%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 67%

Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Marc Scaringi?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 1%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 11%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%

Q10 Between Jake Corman, Charlie Dent, Jim
Gerlach, Tim Murphy, Rick Santorum, Marc
Scaringi, Mark Schweiker, and Kim Ward who
would you most like to see as the Republican
Senate nominee next year?
Jake Corman ………………………………………….. 3%
Charlie Dent……………………………………………. 8%
Jim Gerlach…………………………………………….. 9%
Tim Murphy…………………………………………….. 7%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 45%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 1%
Mark Schweiker ………………………………………. 8%
Kim Ward……………………………………………….. 1%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 19%

Q11 If your choices as a Republican Senate
candidate for next year were just Jake Corman,
Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Tim Murphy, Marc
Scaringi, Mark Schweiker, and Kim Ward who
would you most like to see as the Republican
Senate nominee next year?
Jake Corman ………………………………………….. 9%
Charlie Dent……………………………………………. 10%
Jim Gerlach…………………………………………….. 14%
Tim Murphy…………………………………………….. 13%
Marc Scaringi………………………………………….. 1%
Mark Schweiker ………………………………………. 18%
Kim Ward……………………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 33%

Q12 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum
who would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 1%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 21%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 18%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 4%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 14%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 11%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 8%

Q13 If the Republican candidates for President next
year were just Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 2%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 15%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 26%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 5%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 9%

Q14 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 29%
Conservative…………………………………………… 68%

Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 43%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%