Raleigh, N.C. – The special election to replace John Murtha looks to be headed for a photo finish, with Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz 48-47 in PPP’s final poll of the race.
PA-12 provides a clear example of how dimly voters are viewing politicians and parties across the board right now. Hurting Critz’s chances is that 55% of voters in the district disapprove of Barack Obama and 63% have an unfavorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi. But national Republicans don’t do much better in the district with 60% of voters expressing a negative opinion of Congressional Republicans and 63% saying the GOP ran the country poorly while George W. Bush was President.
If Burns does pull out the victory on Tuesday night it will be more because of a continuing gap in interest between Democratic and Republican voters in the off year election than anything else. Critz is actually winning over more McCain voters (14%) than Burns is Obama voters (12%). This race is not an example of people who voted for Obama who are now unhappy with him and voting Republican. But those planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead.
There’s been very little movement in the race since PPP polled it a month ago. The main difference is that negative campaigning has driven up both candidates’ negatives by 10-11 points. Where Burns’ favorability was a net +19 in April it’s now just +8. And where Critz was previously at a net +7 it’s now -6.
“It looks like this will be an extremely close race on Tuesday night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “With both parties very unpopular in the district it will be difficult for either to claim much of a mandate based on the results.”
PPP surveyed 831 likely voters in PA-12 on May 15th and 16th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.4%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates in the upcoming special
election for Congress are Republican Tim
Burns and Democrat Mark Critz. If the election
was today, who would you vote for?
Tim Burns ………………………………………………. 48%
Mark Critz ………………………………………………. 47%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 In the Democratic primary for US Senate will
you vote for Joe Sestak or Arlen Specter, or
are you undecided?
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 44%
Arlen Specter ………………………………………….. 35%
Undecided………………………………………………. 21%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tim Burns?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 36%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 19%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mark Critz?
Favorable ………….. 39%
Unfavorable……….. 45%
Not Sure……………. 16%
Q5 How excited are you about casting your vote in
the special election next month?
Very excited……………………………………………. 41%
Somewhat excited …………………………………… 29%
Not very excited………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%
Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve …………………………………………………. 35%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 55%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Nancy Pelosi? If favorable, press 1. If
unfavorable, press 2. If you’re not sure, press
3.
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 14%
Q8 Do you support or oppose President Obama’s
health care plan, or do you not have an
opinion?
Support ………………………………………………….. 30%
Oppose ………………………………………………….. 58%
No opinion………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Democrats in Congress are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 29%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q10 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Republicans in Congress are doing?
Approve …………………………………………………. 22%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q11 Do you think Republicans did a good job
running the country while George W. Bush was
President?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 28%
No …………………………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q12 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed
Rendell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 23%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 64%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q13 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Arlen
Specter’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 27%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 60%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 13%
Q14 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Sestak?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 32%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 44%
Q15 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Arlen Specter and Republican Pat
Toomey, who would you vote for?
Arlen Specter …………………………………………..34%
Pat Toomey ……………………………………………. 53%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q16 If the candidates for Senate this fall were
Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat
Toomey, who would you vote for?
Joe Sestak……………………………………………… 35%
Pat Toomey ……………………………………………. 45%
Undecided………………………………………………. 20%
Q17 Do you approve or disapprove of the work
John Murtha did during his time in the US
House?
Approve …………………………………………………. 50%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q18 Would you like to see the next Representative
from your district carry on John Murtha’s
legacy?
Yes ……………………………………………………….. 43%
No …………………………………………………………. 44%
Not Sure…………………………………………………. 13%
Q19 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%
Q20 If you are white, press one now. If other, press
2.
White …………………………………………………….. 92%
Other……………………………………………………… 8%
Q21 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 42%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 24%
Q22 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative? If liberal, press 1. If
moderate, press 2. If conservative, press 3.
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 39%
Conservative…………………………………………… 45%