Raleigh, N.C. – After his first 100 days in office, new Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett fares not much better than the man he replaced a few months ago.  Ed Rendell was one of the least popular governors in the country heading into last fall’s election, and was one of a number of state executives whose seats switched parties.  The same 34% approve of Corbett’s performance so far as did of Rendell’s late last October, according to PPP polling.  But enough voters are still undecided on their opinion of Corbett that only 44% disapprove, versus 53% who frowned on Rendell’s work.

Yet that still puts Corbett at 30^th out of 36 currently serving governors on which PPP has polled in the last year, meaning voters in this blue-leaning swing state have not given him much of a honeymoon after an unusually Republican-heavy turnout handed him the state’s reins.

That pro-GOP enthusiasm gap, more than anything, is why Corbett and other Republicans won across the country last year.    Like in recent PPP polls in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and other states, the outcome of the gubernatorial election, if held today, would be much different.  Democrat Dan Onorato lost to Corbett by nine points last November, but would win a rematch now, 49-44.  That 14-point switch can be attributed in part to a resurgence in Democratic turnout, as well as independents going from 59-41 in Corbett’s favor (according to exit polls) to 45-41 in Onorato’s now.

“Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin all had extremely unpopular Democratic Governors a year ago at this time,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “Now they all have extremely unpopular Republican Governors.  Working as the chief executive of a large Midwestern state might be one of the toughest jobs in the country right now.”

Pat Toomey starts off in better shape than his predecessor, Arlen Specter, who had a 29-60 job approval-disapproval spread in PPP’s final poll before the 2010 election.  But voters are still split three ways on their new senator.  32% approve, 31% disapprove, and a 37% plurality are not yet sure how they feel about the work Toomey has done so far in the Senate. 

PPP surveyed 593 Pennsylvania voters from April 7^th to 10^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 34%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q2 If you could do last fall’s election for Governor
over again, would you vote for Democrat Dan
Onorato or Republican Tom Corbett?
Dan Onorato …………………………………………… 49%
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Pat
Toomey’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 32%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 37%

Q4 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 44%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Someone Else/Don’t Remember………………… 7%

Q5 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 8%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 23%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q6 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q7 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a
Republican, press 2. If you are an independent
or identify with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 51%
Republican……………………………………………… 38%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%

Q8 If you are white, press 1. If African American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 85%
African American……………………………………… 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%

Q9 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 31%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 40%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%