Raleigh, N.C. – Just as in the Senate race, where Joe Sestak now leads Pat Toomey by one point after previously being almost written off, Democrat Dan Onorato has pulled undecided voters almost unilaterally toward his side since PPP’s last survey of the gubernatorial race in August, when Republican Tom Corbett led, 48-35. Corbett still has 48% of the vote, but Onorato has drastically cut his deficit to two points, trailing at 46%.
The enthusiasm gap has narrowed by five points, from an electorate that voted for John McCain by one point to one that favored President Obama by four, six less than his actual 2008 victory margin. This all comes from an increase in Democratic voters, who also make up five points more of the electorate on the margin than in the last survey.
Corbett is still taking advantage of that smaller Republican enthusiasm edge and is also still pulling more Democrats than Onorato is Republicans, but by half as much as in August. And independents now mirror the overall electorate exactly, when in August, they favored Corbett by an astonishing 52-20—a 30-point improvement for Onorato.
It is not that voters have changed their minds about the candidates; both are slightly more popular than two months ago, and Corbett maintains his popularity edge. But incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell has seen his job approval figure surge at a much larger rate than the enthusiasm gap has closed; in fact, the difference between his approval and disapproval marks has been halved. He is still very unpopular, with only 36% of voters approving and 54% disapproving, but that is sunnier than his 27-63 grade in August. Typically, voters are voting against the party of the incumbent governor, and a more favorable view of Rendell can only help Onorato.
“Pennsylvania was looking like very depressing territory for Democrats, but now both the Gubernatorial and Senate races are up for grabs thanks to stagnated support for the Republican candidates, undecideds moving the Democrats’ way, and a resurgent interest in this election by Democratic voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 718 likely Pennsylvania voters on October 17th and 18th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 The candidates for Governor this fall are
Republican Tom Corbett and Democrat Dan
Onorato. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Tom Corbett ……………………………………………. 48%
Dan Onorato …………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Corbett?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 47%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 19%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Dan Onorato?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 39%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%
Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed
Rendell’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 36%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 45%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 5%
Q6 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 19%
Moderate………………………………………………… 44%
Conservative…………………………………………… 37%
Q7 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 51%
Man……………………………………………………….. 49%
Q8 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 48%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 11%
Q9 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 87%
African-American …………………………………….. 9%
Other……………………………………………………… 4%
Q10 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1 now. If
you are 30 to 45, press 2. If you are 46 to 65,
press 3. If older, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 7%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 20%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
