Raleigh, N.C. – He is not yet leading, but Herman Cain’s performance in the first and so far only debate in the Republican presidential primary a few weeks ago has him already tying for third with Ohio’s GOP voters. In March, the last time PPP polled the contest in the Buckeye State, Mike Huckabee led with 19% over Mitt Romney’s 18%, Newt Gingrich’s 16%, and Sarah Palin’s 15%. Now, with Huckabee out of the picture, Romney tops with 21% over Palin’s 16%, Gingrich’s and Cain’s 12%, Michele Bachmann’s 10%, Ron Paul’s 9%, Tim Pawlenty’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s 1%.
Like Cain, Bachmann was not included in Ohio last time, but has been rising in the standings in PPP polls in other states. She has twice the support of fellow Minnesotan Pawlenty, whose announcement has not resulted in more support as of yet; he also placed at 5% in March. Gingrich has slipped after the public-relations disaster that was his first week officially in the race.
Palin actually leads at 20% with the most conservative voters, who make up 38% of the electorate. That puts her over Bachmann’s 15% and Cain’s and Romney’s 13% with that group. Bachmann gets only 6% and 7%, respectively, with moderates and the somewhat conservative. Romney earns 27% with the somewhat conservative, who are a 39% plurality—twice as much as anyone other candidate and twice as much as he gets with their brethren to the right—and also 22% with the 17% who claim to be moderates.
If Palin does not run, Gingrich and Paul would seem to benefit most, but Romney would still lead with 23% to Gingrich’s 16%, Cain’s and Paul’s 13%, Bachmann’s 11%, and Pawlenty’s 6%, with Huntsman at essentially zero.
Ken Blackwell is the overwhelming choice to face Sherrod Brown next fall. He gets 40% or 49% support, regardless of the number of opponents, with the next closest contender in the teens. That is a huge jump from the 17-21% he earned in March, when he also led.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Ohio Republican primary voters from May 19th to 22nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 42%
Unfavorable……….. 34%
Not sure ……………. 23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 66%
Unfavorable……….. 24%
Not sure ……………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 55%
Unfavorable……….. 25%
Not sure ……………. 20%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ken Blackwell?
Favorable ………….. 42%
Unfavorable……….. 19%
Not sure ……………. 39%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Kevin Coughlin?
Favorable ………….. 5%
Unfavorable……….. 9%
Not sure ……………. 86%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable ………….. 17%
Unfavorable……….. 9%
Not sure ……………. 74%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable ………….. 18%
Unfavorable……….. 6%
Not sure ……………. 76%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mary Taylor?
Favorable ………….. 23%
Unfavorable……….. 12%
Not sure ……………. 65%
Q9 Given the choices of Michele Bachmann,
Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman,
Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt
Romney who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for President next year?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 12%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 12%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 1%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 16%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 21%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%
Q10 If Sarah Palin didn’t run and the choices were
just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who would you
most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 11%
Herman Cain…………………………………………… 13%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 0%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 13%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 6%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 18%
Q11 Given the choices of Ken Blackwell, Kevin
Coughlin, Jim Jordan, Josh Mandel, and Mary
Taylor who would you most like to see as the
Republican candidate for Senate next year?
Ken Blackwell …………………………………………. 40%
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 4%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 12%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 9%
Mary Taylor …………………………………………….. 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 28%
Q12 If the choices of a Senate candidate next year
were only Ken Blackwell, Kevin Coughlin, and
Josh Mandel who would you vote for?
Ken Blackwell …………………………………………. 49%
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 4%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 16%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 31%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 2%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 4%
Moderate………………………………………………… 17%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 39%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 38%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 29%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 28%
