Raleigh, N.C. – Ohio Republicans prefer their former Secretary of State Ken Blackwell to take on Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown for Senate next year. Blackwell is the favorite of 17% of Ohio’s usual Republican primary voters, ahead of Jon Husted’s 14%, unlikely candidate Drew Carey’s 12%, Mary Taylor’s 9%, Jim Jordan’s and Steve LaTourette’s 8%, Josh Mandel’s 6%, and state senator Shannon Jones’ 1%. A full quarter, far more than support any of the candidates, are undecided or prefer someone unnamed.
With Carey removed from the picture, Blackwell jumps to 21%, with Husted still at 14%, Jordan and LaTourette up to 10%, Taylor down to 8%, Mandel up to 7%, and Jones up to 4%. 26% are still undecided. Husted and, particularly, Blackwell both earn larger shares of the vote as they move rightward across the ideological spectrum. Mandel is third with moderates, but they make up only 16% of the electorate. When PPP last polled the race in December, the story was similar. After Mike DeWine, who has since decided against a run, Blackwell led with 17% to Husted’s 11%, Jordan’s 10%, Taylor’s 7%, LaTourette’s 6%, and Mandel’s 5%.
The results at this very early point have more to do with name recognition than anything else. Carey naturally has the highest profile, but still 56% have no opinion of him. The others are not any better known with these hardcore GOP voters than with the population at large. 66% are unaware of Husted, 68% of Taylor, 73% of Mandel, 75% of LaTourette, and 80% of Jordan.
With so many undecided, with so few being aware of these candidates, and with no one having actually announced, there is still plenty of room for anyone to jump in and win this primary. Blackwell and Jones were not tested against Brown, but all of the others trailed by at least 15 points in results released Wednesday.
The race for the state’s Republican convention delegates is as muddled as can be. Mike Huckabee leads with 19% over Mitt Romney’s 18%, Newt Gingrich’s 16%, and Sarah Palin’s 15%, with four others in single digits and 13% undecided. In December, Palin led with 21% over Huckabee’s 19%, Gingrich’s 18%, and Romney’s 15%.
PPP surveyed 400 usual Ohio Republican primary voters from March 10th to 13th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable ………….. 46%
Unfavorable……….. 29%
Not sure ……………. 24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable ………….. 67%
Unfavorable……….. 19%
Not sure ……………. 14%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable ………….. 61%
Unfavorable……….. 28%
Not sure ……………. 11%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable ………….. 53%
Unfavorable……….. 26%
Not sure ……………. 21%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Drew Carey?
Favorable ………….. 28%
Unfavorable……….. 16%
Not sure ……………. 56%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Husted?
Favorable ………….. 26%
Unfavorable……….. 8%
Not sure ……………. 66%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable ………….. 13%
Unfavorable……….. 8%
Not sure ……………. 80%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Steve LaTourette?
Favorable ………….. 18%
Unfavorable……….. 7%
Not sure ……………. 75%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable ………….. 22%
Unfavorable……….. 5%
Not sure ……………. 73%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mary Taylor?
Favorable ………….. 24%
Unfavorable……….. 8%
Not sure ……………. 68%
Q11 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels, Newt
Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron
Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney who
would you vote for?
Haley Barbour…………………………………………. 2%
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 4%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 16%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 15%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 7%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 5%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 18%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 13%
Q12 Given the choices of Ken Blackwell, Drew
Carey, Jon Husted, Shannon Jones, Jim
Jordan, Steve LaTourette, Josh Mandel, and
Mary Taylor who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for Senate next
year?
Ken Blackwell …………………………………………. 17%
Drew Carey…………………………………………….. 12%
Jon Husted……………………………………………… 14%
Shannon Jones……………………………………….. 1%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 8%
Steve LaTourette……………………………………… 8%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 6%
Mary Taylor …………………………………………….. 9%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 25%
Q13 If the choices were just Ken Blackwell, Jon
Husted, Shannon Jones, Jim Jordan, Steve
LaTourette, Josh Mandel, and Mary Taylor who
would you most like to see as the Republican
candidate for Senate next year?
Ken Blackwell …………………………………………. 21%
Jon Husted……………………………………………… 14%
Shannon Jones……………………………………….. 4%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 10%
Steve LaTourette……………………………………… 10%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 7%
Mary Taylor …………………………………………….. 8%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 26%
Q14 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 1%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 16%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 46%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 34%
Q15 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 30%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 39%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 25%
