Raleigh, N.C. – Sherrod Brown continues to look like a strong favorite for reelection to the Senate from Ohio, leading Republican challenger Josh Mandel 47-36. The race has tightened a little bit though since PPP’s last poll, which found Brown leading by a 49-34 spread.
Brown’s approval numbers aren’t earth shattering- 42% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 34% who disapprove. The worst news for him is that independents split against him by a 37/44 margin. But at the same time 20% of Republicans think he’s doing a good job and that’s an unusual amount of crossover supprt in this climate.
Mandel’s name recognition is on the rise. When we last polled Ohio in early November just 33% of voters were familiar with him and that’s now up to 39%. The problem for Mandel is that while the share of voters seeing him favorably- 14%- has stayed in place, the percentage with an unfavorable opinion has risen from 19% to 25%. Voters aren’t warming up to him as they get to know him better.
There are a couple key crosstabs to note in the head to head numbers. Brown leads Mandel 45-39 with white voters. If a Democratic candidate in Ohio can even break even with white voters they’re assured of an easy victory. Also despite Brown’s upside down approval numbers with independents, he still leads Mandel by a 40-36 spread with them. And he’s winning over 12% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats.
“Sherrod Brown isn’t totally out of the woods,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “A politician with an approval rating in the low 40s is always at least somewhat vulnerable. But there’s no indication that voters care much for Josh Mandel, and Brown has persistently had a healthy lead in our polling.”
PPP will release new numbers looking at John Kasich and John Boehner’s standing in the state early next week.
PPP surveyed 820 Ohio voters on January 28th and 29th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Sherrod Brown’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .42%
Disapprove…………. .34%
Not sure …………….. .24%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Josh Mandel?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 61%
Q3 If the candidates for US Senate this fall were
Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh
Mandel, who would you vote for?
Sherrod Brown………………………………………… 47%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 36%
Undecided………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 18%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 21%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 21%
Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q6 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 42%
Republican……………………………………………… 36%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 21%
Q7 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 11%
Other……………………………………………………… 5%
Q8 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 44%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
