Raleigh, N.C. – Even though he may not start running for his old job shortly after being elected to a new one, Mike DeWine is the choice of Ohio’s GOP primary voters to take on Sherrod Brown in 2012.  In the Presidential race, Sarah Palin comes out on top, but as is the case in many states, the four frontrunners are so bunched up any one of them could have the lead when the margin of error is taken into account.

DeWine gets 27% of the vote in an eight-candidate field of potential aspirants to his former post.  In second is former secretary of state Ken Blackwell, at 17%.  The rest of the choices are pretty tightly packed: Jon Husted at 11%, Jim Jordan at 10%, Mary Taylor at 7%, 14^th-District Congressman Steve LaTourette at 6%, incoming state treasurer Josh Mandel at 5%, and state senator Kevin Coughlin at 2%.  DeWine and Blackwell mainly dominate on name recognition, and the field is so open to one of the currently less supported candidates that the third-place “candidate” is “someone else/not sure,” with 15%.

Yesterday’s release showed that almost no one in the general electorate has an opinion on Husted, Jordan, or Taylor, but even among hardcore Republicans, the same holds true, so there is plenty of time for these candidates to raise their profiles and boost their support.  70% are not familiar with Jordan, 62% with Taylor, and 58% with Husted.  Those who do have feelings on them are about 2:1 to 3:1 in favor.  Blackwell, LaTourette, Mandel, and Coughlin were not tested against Brown, nor on their personal favorability ratings, but even these three unknowns did well against the vulnerable incumbent.

Palin leads the White House wannabes with 21% to Mike Huckabee’s 19%, Newt Gingrich’s 18%, Mitt Romney’s 15%, Ron Paul’s 6%, Mitch Daniels’ 5%, Tim Pawlenty’s 3%, and John Thune’s 2%.  11% are undecided or prefer someone unnamed.  Daniels’ level of support is a little higher than in most states since he is the governor of neighboring Indiana.  There is a huge ideological divide.  Huckabee actually leads with 23% over Romney’s 21% among moderates, but they make up only 24% of the electorate.  At only 11%, Palin gets less support than even Paul’s and Gingrich’s 13%.  But the conservative supermajority supports Palin with 24% over Gingrich’s 21%, Huckabee’s 18%, and Romney’s 14%.

PPP surveyed 400 usual Ohio Republican primary voters from December 10^th to 12^th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 27%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike Huckabee?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Sarah Palin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 68%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 20%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 53%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 22%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mike DeWine?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 45%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 25%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Husted?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 29%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 58%

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jim Jordan?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 20%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 70%

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mary Taylor?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 28%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 10%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 62%

Q9 Between Ken Blackwell, Kevin Coughlin, Mike
DeWine, Jon Husted, Jim Jordan, Steve
LaTourette, Josh Mandel, and Mary Taylor who
would you most like to see as the Republican
Senate nominee in 2012?
Ken Blackwell …………………………………………. 17%
Kevin Coughlin………………………………………… 2%
Mike DeWine ………………………………………….. 27%
Jon Husted……………………………………………… 11%
Jim Jordan ……………………………………………… 10%
Steve LaTourette……………………………………… 6%
Josh Mandel …………………………………………… 5%
Mary Taylor …………………………………………….. 7%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 15%

Q10 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike
Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and John Thune who
would you vote for?
Mitch Daniels ………………………………………….. 5%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 18%
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 19%
Sarah Palin …………………………………………….. 21%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 6%
Tim Pawlenty ………………………………………….. 3%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 15%
John Thune…………………………………………….. 2%
Someone else/Undecided…………………………. 11%

Q11 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,
moderate, or conservative?
Liberal ……………………………………………………. 3%
Moderate………………………………………………… 24%
Conservative…………………………………………… 73%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 6%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 32%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 26%