Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama’s numbers in Pennsylvania are the best they’ve been in 10 PPP polls of the state taken since he was elected President. He now leads Mitt Romney by a 7 point margin in the state, 49-42.
Pennsylvania voters are evenly divided on Obama’s performance with 47% approving and an equal 47% disapproving of the job he’s doing. That’s a big improvement from Obama’s numbers in the state over the course of 2011, which came in at 42/53, 46/48, 42/52, and 46/49 on our four polls of the state.
Obama’s 7 point lead over Romney in Pennsylvania is a shift from last year when we twice found them tied, once found Romney ahead by a point, and once found Obama ahead by three. In addition to Obama’s approval numbers improving, Romney’s image has taken a hit in the state over the last 3 months. His favorability numbers were already bad at 32/51, but now they’re worse at 30/60. Obama’s turned a 2 point deficit against Romney with independents into a 51/38 lead.
The strongest of the Republican candidates in Pennsylvania- for both the primary and general- is Rick Santorum. He’s the top choice of 43% of GOP primary voters to 25% for Romney, 13% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul.
Santorum’s numbers are a little bit less impressive when it comes to the general election. He does better than Romney, but still trails Obama by a 48-46 margin in his home state. His favorability is 41/51, and more voters- 29%- say Santorum’s campaign has hurt the state’s image than the 27% who think it’s been a positive factor. 41% say it hasn’t made a difference either way.
“We haven’t found numbers this good for Barack Obama in Pennsylvania since before he was elected,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
PPP surveyed 689 Pennsylvania voters, as well as an oversample of 564 Republican primary voters, from March 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.7% and for the Republicans it’s +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
General Election Toplines
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 47%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 47%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 23%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 67%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 60%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 41%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q6 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 51%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 39%
Undecided………………………………………………. 11%
Q7 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Ron
Paul, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 41%
Undecided………………………………………………. 12%
Q8 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 49%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 42%
Undecided………………………………………………. 9%
Q9 If the candidates for President this year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama………………………………………… 48%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 46%
Undecided………………………………………………. 6%
Q10 Do you think Rick Santorum’s campaign for
President has helped Pennsylvania’s image,
hurt it, or has it not made a difference?
Helped it…………………………………………………. 27%
Hurt it …………………………………………………….. 29%
Hasn’t made a difference ………………………….. 41%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 3%
Q11 Do you think Rick Santorum should continue
with his Presidential campaign, or do you think
he should drop out?
He should continue ………………………………….. 57%
He should drop out ………………………………….. 36%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 46%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 47%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%
Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 10%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 25%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%
Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%
Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 46%
Republican……………………………………………… 41%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 13%
Q16 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White …………………………………………………….. 84%
African-American …………………………………….. 10%
Other……………………………………………………… 6%
Q17 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 18%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 25%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%
GOP Primary Toplines
Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 42%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 43%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 34%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 54%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 46%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 40%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 14%
Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 64%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 30%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q5 If the Republican candidates for President
were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney,
and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 13%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 25%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 43%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 10%
Q6 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 52%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 48%
Q7 If the Republican candidates for President
were just Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick
Santorum, who would you vote for?
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 12%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 28%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 51%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q8 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 27%
No …………………………………………………………. 61%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q9 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical…………………………………… 41%
Are not …………………………………………………… 59%
Q10 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 6%
Moderate………………………………………………… 18%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 38%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 35%
Q11 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 46%
Man……………………………………………………….. 54%
Q12 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 8%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 37%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 27%
